000 AXNT20 KNHC 142240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Nov 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico Tue into Tue night, bringing gale force NW winds offshore Veracruz Tue night into early Wed. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border area of the coastal plains of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 07N24W. The ITCZ continues from 07N24W to 04N29W to 07N35W. A nearly stationary surface trough is along 37W from 03N to 13N. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N and E of 35W and within 150 nm W of the surface trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the forecast for gale-force winds that will develop being a cold front during the next 36 hours. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 23N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of the Texas coast, in association with another stationary front located just inland. A cold front passes through the northern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida, to 24N82W. The front is stationary from 24N82W to 23N90W. A surface trough continues from 23N90W to 23N97W. A shear line is along 23N97W to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Across the western Gulf, moderate to fresh southerly return flow has developed, with some locally strong winds near the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Elsewhere over the eastern and central Gulf, N of the stationary front, mainly moderate E winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 6 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf this evening and will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico by Tue morning, and from N Florida near 29N82W to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the front tonight through early Tue over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front with a small area of gale force winds near Veracruz, Mexico Tue afternoon into Tue night. By Wed, strong high pressure will build over Texas, tightening the gradient. As a result, winds will increase and seas will build across the basin. Gale force winds will likely regenerate near Veracruz from late Wed through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Mona Passage to around 13N. Convection previously associated with this feature has dissipated, leaving dry conditions over most of the basin. The except is scattered moderate convection that has developed from Nicaragua to Colombia, S of 11N, in associated with the eastern extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough. A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly moderate trade winds and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet. The exceptions are in the NW Caribbean and near the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama, where seas average 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel late Thu, and move over the NW Caribbean Thu night. Fresh NE winds and building seas will follow the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from just NW of Bermuda, through the central Bahamas, and into the Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough extends from just SE of Bermuda, through the Turks and Caicos, and into SE Cuba. Little convection is associated with these two features but scattered moderate convection is occurring with a second surface trough to the east. This trough extends from 30N66W to the Mona Passage, and is inducing numerous moderate convection N of 21N between 60W and 65W. Behind the cold front, mainly moderate NE to E winds prevail. E of the surface trough, moderate SE winds dominate, with light to gentle winds prevailing in between the two features. Seas W of 55W average 5 to 7 ft, with lower heights around the Bahamas. Farther E, a dissipating cold front passes through 31N19W to 22N34W and 27N45W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail behind this front, with moderate to fresh trades to the S, continuing across the entire tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Seas E of 55W range from 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE winds and rough seas N of 29N will gradually decrease as a cold front gradually weakens through Tue. The next cold front will move off NE Florida early Wed, and reach from 31N73W to central Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh NW winds will briefly follow the front Thu before weakening as high pressure builds through Fri. $$ KONARIK