000 AXNT20 KNHC 130515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Nov 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 0300 UTC, a cold front stretches from the Panama City, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale force N winds are found in the western Gulf waters N of the front, while sustained gales are affecting the waters offshore Veracruz and S of Tampico. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are behind the front S of 27N. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish overnight. Afterwards, conditions across the Gulf will gradually improve through Sun night. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 09N19W. The ITCZ continues from 09N19W to 05N35W to the coast of Guyana near 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N and west of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING associated with a cold front draped across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico. Behind the cold front, cold, dry continental air moving over warm Gulf waters result in a blanket of stratocumulus clouds that cover most of the region. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong northerly winds behind the frontal boundary and north of 21N. Seas in these waters are 4-10 ft. Ahead of the cold front, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil under a weak high pressure regime. Light to gentle northerly winds and seas of 1-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to north of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. The front will extend from southwest Florida to central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening and dissipate by Mon. Strong N winds and high seas will follow the front through Sun. Brief gale conditions are expected offshore of Veracruz through early Sun morning. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Tue morning. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Synoptic observations indicate that a weak surface trough extends from NW Colombia to Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. Meanwhile, in the northeast corner of the Caribbean Sea an approaching surface trough is sustaining some shower activity that is affecting some of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin is under mainly tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure system near the central Bahamas and lower pressures over northern South America result in moderate easterly trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper level trough in the central Atlantic supports a surface trough that extends from 30N60W to 19N66W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture being pulled northward are generating a large area of showers and thunderstorms, from 21N to 30N and between 55W and 62W. A bit farther south, another surface trough extends from 21N60W to 13N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 21W and between 51W and 61W. A cold front extends from 31N21W to 21N30W, where it becomes a dissipating cold front to 19N39W to 23N54W and then it continues as a dissipating stationary front to 27N59W. An expansive 1028 mb high pressure system is positioned between Bermuda and the Azores near 33N48W. The pressure gradient due to lower pressures associated with the aforementioned surface troughs, frontal boundary and deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly winds over most of the central and eastern Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that these winds are occurring north of the ITCZ to about 31N and between 25W and 65W. Some of the strongest winds are found east of the surface trough near the Leeward Islands. Seas are 6-10 ft in the central and eastern Atlantic, with the highest seas occurring near 20N45W. The vast northerly swell region was captured by an altimeter satellite pass from a few hours ago, with seas near 11 ft near 23N50W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong E winds and high seas persist N 25N and E of 65W along a weakening frontal boundary that extends roughly along 20N. These strong winds will diminish tonight with seas gradually subsiding through early next week. Moderate northerly swell will impact the waters E of 70W through tonight before fading Sun. A trough extends along the Lesser Antilles northward to 21N60W with thunderstorms east of it to 55W. These thunderstorms could produce strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to central Florida by Mon night. The next front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by mid- week. $$ DELGADO