000 AXNT20 KNHC 122324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: At 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches from the Panama City, Florida SW to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to near gale force N winds continue to affect the offshore waters W and N of the front while sustained gales continue in the waters offshore Veracruz and S of Tampico. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are behind the front S of 27N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere along the northern gulf offshore waters W of the front. Gale force winds are forecast to diminish overnight. Afterwards, conditions across the Gulf will gradually improve through Sun night. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from 08N21W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 57W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 13N between 10W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING associated with a cold front that extends from the western Florida Panhandle to north of Veracruz, Mexico near 21N97W. For the forecast, strong N winds and high seas will continue to follow the front through Sun, which is expected to extend from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. Brief gale conditions are expected to continue offshore of Veracruz through early Sun morning. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Tue morning. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate trade winds across the central and eastern basin. Seas are 1-3 ft in W of 77W and 3-4 ft across the remaining central and E Caribbean. Otherwise, diffluent flow to the E of the base of an upper-level trough supports scattered showers across the central Caribbean, including E Cuba, portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink southeastward and gradually build across the basin today. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean tonight through Mon morning. This will briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong E winds and high seas persist N 25N and E of 65W along a stalled frontal boundary that extends roughly along 25N-26N. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also S of 25N between 55W and 60W being supported by a convectively active surface trough that is to the E of the Leeward Islands. West of 65W, a weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range in decaying NE swell. Otherwise, the remaining cetral and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of a cold front that extends from 30N21W to 19N36W to 24N54W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are W of the front with seas of 8-11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, strong winds associated with the stalled front will diminish tonight with seas gradually subsiding through early next week. Moderate northerly swell will impact the waters E of 70W through tonight before fading Sun. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to central Florida by Mon night. The next front will likely move off the NE Florida coast by mid-week. $$ Ramos