000 AXNT20 KNHC 120420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0410 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will emerge off the Texas coast overnight with frequent gusts to gale force expected off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend from the Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds will reach gale force speed just north of Tampico Sat morning. These northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 69W/70W, and south of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off the coast of Venezuela east of Caracas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 28W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information an upcoming Gale Warning. 1014 mb high pressure over the central Gulf is supporting gentle winds and slight seas over most of the basin, except for moderate to fresh SE winds off the coast of Tamaulipas, between the high pressure and lower pressure over north central Mexico. No significant weather is observed, although a few showers may be developing over the coast of Texas ahead of a cold front moving through the coastal plains. For the forecast, the cold front will move over the northwest Gulf overnight with strong N winds and frequent gusts to gale force off the Texas coast. By Sat morning, the front will stretch from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico then reach from Tampa Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong N winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front through Sun. Brief gale conditions will occur across the upper Mexican waters Sat morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico Sat afternoon before diminishing. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are generally 1-3 ft west of 75W with 3-5 ft east of 75W, along with northerly swell that still propagates through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink southeastward and gradually build across the basin tonight through Sat. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean Sun through Mon morning to briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed.ATLANTIC OCEAN... ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N22W to 24N30W to 24N45W, where it becomes stationary and continues to 27N55W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas persist north of this boundary. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft is evident within 300 nm south of the front between 30W and 65W. Moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of 35W. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident east of 35W, south of the front. Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms near an associated surface trough near 60W from 23N and 29N. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will gradually subside through Sat as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon night. $$ Christensen