000 AXNT20 KNHC 120003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole is centered near 37.7N 82.0W at 11/2100 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Charleston West Virginia moving NE at 41 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. As the system has quickly transitioned to an extratropical cyclone, and will orbit around the periphery of a deepening low over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada, gusty surface winds and pressure falls will persist across the Northeast into this weekend. However, the risk of excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding with this extratropical transition will continue to diminish through Saturday and this will be the final advisory for Nicole. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas coast tonight with frequent gusts to gale force expected off the South Texas coast. The cold front will extend from the Alabama coast to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon. Winds will reach gale force speed just N of Tampico Sat morning. These northerly winds will reach the Veracruz offshore waters Sat afternoon/early evening. Winds will drop below gale force by Sat evening and diminish to moderate to fresh by Sun. Please read the latest the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Caribbean with axis near 68W, and S of 20N, moving west at around 5 kt. Heavy showers and tstms are occuring mainly inland northern Venezuela with isolated showers happening in the south-central Caribbean offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 09N13W to 08N18W. The ITCZ continues from 08N18W to 06N40W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 16W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information an upcoming Gale Warning. A weak pressure gradient across the Gulf of Mexico is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas, except W of 95W where moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 5 ft are along the E Mexican coast. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are also along the Florida panhandle coastal waters. For the forecast, winds and seas over the northeastern Gulf associated with Nicole will continue to improve tonight. A cold front will move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening with frequent gusts to gale force off the Texas coast. By Sat morning, the front will stretch from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico then reach from Tampa Bay, FL to the western Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. Strong N winds and moderate to high seas will follow the front through Sun. Brief gale conditions will occur across the upper Mexican waters Sat morning and shift southward to offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico Sat afternoon before diminishing. Conditions across the Gulf are expected to improve by Sun night before the next cold front moves into the NW Gulf Mon night. This next front is expected to reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is resulting in light to gentle winds over the western basin and moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the eastern basin. Seas are generally 1-3 ft W of 75W while seas to 5 ft dominate the E Caribbean along with northerly swell that still propagates through the Mona and Anegada Passages. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will sink southeastward and gradually build across the basin tonight through Sat. A surface trough will move westward across the E Caribbean Sun through Mon morning to briefly weaken the trade wind flow across the basin. High pressure will build into the region as the trough dissipates along 70W Mon night through Tue, and freshen the trade winds across the entire basin through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N27W to 25N45W, where it becomes stationary and continues to 29N64W. North of this boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the E and SE with 8-13 ft seas. South of the boundary, winds are gentle to moderate from the E to NE. Seas are 6-10 ft in this area as northerly swell propagates southward. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas offshore of NE Florida will continue to subside tonight. Farther east, strong E winds and high seas occurring along and to the N of a stalled frontal boundary that extends roughly along 27N, will gradually subside through Sat as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. The front will weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Keys by Mon night. $$ Ramos