000 AXNT20 KNHC 100522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Nicole is centered near 26.6N 78.5W at 09/0000 UTC or 20 nm ENE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm strength onshore flow is evident north of Jupiter Inlet, as far north as Daytona Beach. Regional radar is showing a large rainband wrapping around the northwest semicircle of Nicole, bringing heavy rainfall across much of Florida from Fort Lauderdale to Cape Canaveral. This is part of a larger area of moderate convection north of center of Nicole, from 27N to 29N between 75W and 80W. Very rough seas persist north of Grand Bahama Island and off the coast of east- central Florida, with maximum seas reaching as high as 29 ft. Rough seas are also occurring over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, associated with strong winds on the western periphery of Nicole. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea, extends along 61W/62W, south of 18N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted south of 12N between 57W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near the border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 06N25W to 10N45W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by a surface trough. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough from 09N50W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N, between 23W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Nicole, off Florida's east coast. Strong NE winds and rough seas encompass the eastern Gulf north of 22N, east of 88W, on the western periphery of Nicole. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. A few showers are active over the far northeast Gulf, but no other significant weather is noted. For the forecast, Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.3W Thu morning, inland to 29.7N 83.5W Thu evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 83.3W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 36.5N 80.5W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Nicole will bring tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf late tonight through Thu. Strong winds and rough seas are expected over the eastern Gulf through Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front should move over the northwest Gulf Fri evening and stretch from the Florida Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche Sat night, then dissipate by Sun night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front over the far western Gulf Sat through Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of Hurricane Nicole north of the is disrupting the subtropical ridge, which typically governs trade wind flow across the Caribbean. Several recent scatterometer satellite passes show light and variable winds across most of the basin. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show slight seas as well. The only exception is over the far eastern Caribbean where moderate E winds are evident associated with the tropical wave entering the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will continue to lead to gentle to moderate winds across the area through the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Hurricane Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of 70W and north of 25N. East of 70W, the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane Nicole, described in detail in the Special Features Section above. A cold front extends from 31N45W to 29N60W where it transitions to a stationary front and extends to 29N70W. A scatterometer satellite pass indicated strong to near-gale force winds north of the stationary front. Rough to very rough seas are noted north of the front as well. Mostly gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, Nicole will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.3W Thu morning, inland to 29.7N 83.5W Thu evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 83.3W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 36.5N 80.5W Fri evening, and dissipate Sat morning. Large seas from Nicole will diminish over the NW waters by Sat morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by early Mon. $$ Christensen