000 AXNT20 KNHC 090601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.9N 75.4W at 09/0600 UTC or 95 nm ENE of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas, moving WSW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 275 nm N semicircle and 120 nm S semicircle. Peak seas are estimated at 30 ft. The 12 ft seas extend outward up to 480 nm N semicircle and 300 nm S semicircle. The tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 330 nm NW quadrant and 240 nm E semicircle. A WSW to westward motion is expected through today. A WNW motion is forecast to begin tonight, followed by a turn toward the NW and N on Thu and Thu night. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the NW Bahamas this morning, move near or over those islands by this afternoon, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Thu. Nicole's center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thu and Thu night. Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane later today and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida. Dangerous storm surge, very rough surf and deadly rip currents are expected as the storm approaches Florida. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml as well as the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the coast of NW South America to 13N and between 52W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mainly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 08N19W to 06N35W to 10N56W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is seen within 400 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A robust high pressure system over the SE Canada extends southward into the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and Tropical Storm Nicole approaching the NW Bahamas support fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds N of 22N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring E of 87W. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 27N87W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole is over the Atlantic near 27.1N 74.8W 984 mb at 10 PM EST moving WSW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.9N 76.3W Wed morning, move to 26.9N 78.8W Wed evening, then move inland over Florida and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.4W Thu morning. Nicole will remain inland and move to 29.7N 83.4W Thu evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 32.8N 83.3W Fri morning, and become extratropical well north of the area Fri evening. Nicole will bring tropical storm force winds to the far northeast Gulf Wed night through Thu night, and strong winds and rough seas elsewhere to the northeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish through Fri. Looking ahead, strong winds will follow a cold front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night. The front will extend across the southern Gulf by late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft continues to produce isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a surface trough draped across the Bay Islands is helping to generate some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. The Caribbean remains in a weak pressure regime as light to gentle winds prevail, except for moderate easterly winds E of 66W and moderate northerly winds N of 19N and W of 79W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern and NW Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on Tropical Storm Nicole, which is impacting much of the waters west of 60W. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Nicole, a 1022 mb high pressure system positioned just south of the Azores dominates the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. Ample tropical moisture flowing northward and divergence aloft sustain scattered moderate convection N of 20N and between 58W and 66W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and Nicole support moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 20N and between 55W and 68W. Seas of 6-9 ft are also found in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted S of 20N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Nicole is near 27.1N 74.8W 984 mb at 10 PM EST, moving WSW at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Nicole will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.9N 76.3W Wed morning, move to 26.9N 78.8W Wed evening, then move inland over Florida and weaken to a tropical storm near 27.9N 81.4W Thu morning. Nicole will remain inland and move to 29.7N 83.4W Thu evening, then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.8N 83.3W Fri morning before becoming extratropical well north of the area Fri evening. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night or early Sun, then weaken as it moves to a position from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Sun night. $$ DELGADO