000 AXNT20 KNHC 061807 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Nov 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning... A broad low pressure is developing about 130 nm north of Puerto Rico. Aided by a pronounced upper-level trough near 70W, widespread showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of 20N between 55W and 72W, including southeast Bahamas. Inside this area, fresh to strong ENE winds with 9 to 11 ft seas are found north of the low; and fresh to strong with locally near-gale ESE to S winds with 10 to 14 ft seas are seen east of the low. These winds are expected to become near-gale to gale force east of the low later this afternoon and this evening. This system is forecast to move northward or northwestward further into the southwestern Atlantic today, then turn westward or west-southwestward early this week. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and it is likely to become a subtropical or tropical depression early this week. Regardless of development, there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to middle part of this week. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. Central Subtropical Atlantic Low Pressure with Gale Warning... A well-defined low pressure located 600 nm east of Bermuda is associated with an area of showers and thunderstorms. This activity has been attempting to redevelop closer to the center, and if these trends continue, a short-lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today while the system drifts slowly over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by OPC at www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 17N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 44W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border to 08N20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 200 nm south of the trough. An ITCZ continues from 08N20W across 07N30W to 09N44W, then northwestward from 09N47W through 10N53W to just east of Barbados. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 100 nm north, and 160 nm south of both ITCZ segments. The eastern end of East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over Panama and northwestern Colombia, and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Convergent southerly winds southeast of the remnants of former Tropical Depression Lisa are generating isolated thunderstorms at the central Bay of Campeche. A surface ridge extends southwestward from the southeast U.S. to north of Tampico, Mexico. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across much of the Gulf. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft at the central and eastern Bay of Campeche, and 1 to 3 ft for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late today. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Thu over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface to mid-level trough runs northward from near the ABC Islands to beyond the Mona Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the east-central basin, including the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate monsoonal winds and 2 to 3 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Gentle NE to ENE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure east of the central Bahamas today. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough seas. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about gale warnings and potential sub-tropical/tropical development in the Atlantic. Convergent southerly winds south of a 1020 mb low near 32N36W are producing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 34W and 37W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the influence from the broad low mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell are present from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. The 1026 mb Azores High is sustaining gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 7 to 11 ft in northerly swell north of 20N between the African coast and 55W. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident from 09N to 20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, large NE swell will prevail across the entire area today. A broad low pressure has formed east of the Bahamas. Conditions are favorable for a subtropical or tropical depression to form during the early part of the week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north will lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late today and tonight. Strong to gale force winds and very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ Chan