000 AXNT20 KNHC 042333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Nov 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Lisa is centered near 19.3N 95.3W at 04/2100 UTC or 200 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of the low from 20N to 21N between 95W and 96W. Seas range 8-9 ft near the center. Lisa is expected to have a slow northward motion tonight and early Saturday. Lisa or its remnants are then forecast to stall or drift southward through the remainder of the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Lisa is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Atlantic Gale Warning: Favorable conditions aloft will support the development of broad low pressure near Hispaniola over the next couple of days. This low is expected to become better organized as it moves into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas Sat night through Sun night. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 14N to 16N between 34W and 39W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 15 knots. Widely scattered showers are noted from 09N to 13N between 49W and 53W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from the Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward around 10 kt. Aided by divergent winds aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the eastern Caribbean Basin, including the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea-Bissau coast near 12N16W to 10N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 07N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N37W to 06N50W, then continues W of another tropical wave from 09N52W to 12N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough stretches from the Colombia coast near 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Panama and northwester Colombia, and nearby Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Tropical Depression Lisa. Outside the influence of T.D. Lisa, a surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1031 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic U.S. States across the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are noted with locally fresh winds in the NW Gulf. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are seen over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Lisa is near 19.3N 95.3W 1008 mb at 5 PM EDT, moving NNW at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Lisa will move to 20.0N 95.5W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.6N 95.3W Sat afternoon, then continue to 20.3N 95.2W Sun morning, 19.9N 95.2W Sun afternoon, before dissipating Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Sat, then stall and dissipate through Sun. Looking ahead, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure building southward over the area and broad low pressure that will approach Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun. This pattern will result in increasing winds and building seas Mon through Wed over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico with seas 6 ft near the highest winds. Moderate to fresh SE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present elsewhere over the eastern basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 2 to 3 ft seas are found at the southwestern corner of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas over the northeast Caribbean follow a tropical wave south of Hispaniola. Favorable conditions aloft support the development of broad low pressure in this area over the next couple of days, which will become better organized as it moves into the southwest Atlantic early next week. This pattern will support strong to near-gale force winds over the Atlantic waters near the Leeward Islands with rough to very rough seas Sat night into Sun. These conditions will improve through the early part of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will persist through the early and middle portions of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pronounced upper level low is centered north of the Greater Antilles near 24N72W. At the surface, a trough extends off the Florida coast to the Bahamas from 23N75W to beyond 31N80W. Isolated showers are noted near this feature and moving across the Florida nearshore waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are along this feature, particularly off the Florida coast with seas 5 to 6 ft. To the east, a weak 1014 mb surface low is noted near 28N56W with a trough extending along it from 26N71W to 31N48W. Due to divergent flow aloft interacting with this feature, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the west end of the trough from 18N to 29N between 56W and 71W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted northeast of the trough and low from 28N to beyond 31N between 43W and 59W. North of this system, strong NE to E winds prevail. Seas range 8 to 12 ft, with the highest seas noted N of 27N between 55W and 67W. The 8 ft seas extend as far S as 26N and as far west as 76W. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1025 mb Azores High is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N and E of 55W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are present from 09N to 20N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles/60W. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Broad low pressure may form over the northeast Caribbean over the next couple of days, with tropical or subtropical development possible while the low moves to a position north of Hispaniola and east of the Turks and Caicos Sun. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure farther north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong to near-gale force SE winds east of the low, possibly reaching minimal gale force with very rough seas north of the Leeward Islands and east of the central Bahamas late Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are possible off northeast Florida from late Mon through mid week as the low pressure shifts northwestward into a strong ridge centered north of the area. $$ AReinhart