000 AXNT20 KNHC 040600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 04 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression LISA, at 04/0300 UTC, is near 18.1N 93.1W, in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Lisa is about 150 km/81 nm to the WSW of Ciudad del Carmen in Mexico. Lisa is moving W, or 275 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 25 knots, and the sea heights to be less than 8 feet, from 18N to 20N between 91W and 94W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered strong is within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous strong is in southern sections of Honduras, and in the eastern two-thirds of El Salvador. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.98 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.61 in Merida in Mexico. Scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the coast of El Salvador. Anyone who has interests in eastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Lisa. The rainfall threat that is associated with Lisa is expected to continue to diminish. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 inch to 3 inches are possible in parts of southeastern Mexico through tonight. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 500 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W/47W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward, within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea, just to the south of its border with Guinea-Bissau, to 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N20W, to 09N33W 08N50W 07N57W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Depression LISA. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, to the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds cover most of the area. The exception is fresh winds offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula, in areas of convective precipitation from T.D. Lisa. The sea heights range mainly from 2 feet to 4 feet. The exception is locally 5 feet near and to the north of the Yucatan Channel. Tropical Depression Lisa near 18.1N 93.1W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT moving W at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt. Lisa will move to 18.7N 94.4W Fri morning, 19.6N 95.2W Fri evening, 20.2N 95.3W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.3N 95.0W Sat evening, 19.8N 95.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Fri night into Sat. The front will reach the central Gulf Sun and weaken. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf Fri and Fri night ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. The gradient is expected to tighten between high pressure that builds southward over the area and broad low pressure that approaches Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Depression LISA. Moderate to fresh trade winds are in most of the Caribbean Sea, including in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet from 10N to 17N between 74W and 82W. The sea heights range mainly from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 04/0000 UTC, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN, are: 0.73 in St.Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and 0.32 in Bermuda. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia westward, through Costa Rica, into the Tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward from 70W westward. A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, strong winds along scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE Caribbean Fri night through Sat night. Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to move northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The system is expected to be broad and disorganized initially. It is possible that the environmental conditions may support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week, while it moves generally northwestward or westward in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A warm front is along 30N52W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 28N58W. A stationary front extends from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 25N65W to 28N75W. A cold front is to the north of the area, from 31N to 36N between 40W and 61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 38W and 75W. Any tropical or subtropical development of the low pressure center should be slow to occur during the next couple of days, while it moves little through Friday, and then to merge with a larger low pressure area, that is developing to its southwest by the end of the weekend. More development is not anticipated once this occurs. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation cover the Atlantic Ocean from 19N northward from 40W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N21W, to 26N39W and 20N57W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, are from 20N northward between 60W and 66W. The marine conditions are more favorable ahead of the front, with gentle to moderate winds and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are close to the convective precipitation. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are near the 33N21W-20N57W surface ridge. A stationary front extending from 25N66W to 28N74W will weaken to a trough on Fri. Strong high pressure north of the area and in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to its north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong NE to E winds over most of the northern and western waters N of the Bahamas early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over part of the NW forecast waters Tue and Tue night. $$ mt/al