569 AXNT20 KNHC 032156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Lisa is centered inland near 18.1N 92.2W at 03/2100 UTC or 40 nm SW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 22.5N between 87W and 97W. Peak seas over nearby water areas are only up to 5 ft. The depression is moving toward the west and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn toward the northwest on Fri. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will continue to move over southeastern Mexico tonight, and move into the Bay of Campeche on Fri. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two. Lisa is not expected to re-intensify when the center reaches the Bay of Campeche. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Martin is centered near 50.5N 34.5W at 03/2100 UTC or 820 nm NNW of the Azores moving NNE at 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. The post-tropical cyclone is racing moving toward the north-northeast. A slower northward to north-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a much slower turn toward the east on Fri. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is then anticipated into the weekend. Martin's peak sustained winds will slowly decrease over the next few days, but it will continue to produce strong winds over a very large area well into the weekend. Swells generated by post-tropical Martin will likely spread across a large portion of the high-latitude North Atlantic basin, affecting portions of Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the final NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, Meteo France, and the UK Met Office ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Caribbean along 67W/68W, south of 19N through the Mona Passage to central Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near Puerto Rico and from the tropical wave eastward. Additional activity is inland over portions of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W to 07N20W to 07N29W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 07N32W to near the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. The surface trough embedded in the ITCZ extends from 13N30W to 05N31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over a large area from 02N to 10N between 20W and 40W, and elsewhere from 07N to 14N between 40W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about Tropical Depression Lisa located over southeastern Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing gentle to moderate NE to E winds, except fresh offshore western Yucatan where some deep convection somewhat associated with Lisa is located. Seas are mainly 2-4 ft across the basin, except locally 5 ft near and north of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, Lisa will track northwestward to offshore the coast near 18.5N 93.7W Fri morning, move over the Bay of Campeche Fri afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low over the SW Gulf Sat afternoon, before dissipating Mon afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will shift eastward through Sat in response to a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Fri night into Sat, reach the central Gulf Sun and weaken. Fresh to strong southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf Fri and Fri night ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. The gradient is expected to tigthen between high pressure that builds southward over the area and broad low pressure that approaches Florida from the Bahamas starting late Sun leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, somewhat associated with the outer circulation of Tropical Depression Lisa located inland over southeastern Mexico, are still observed the NW Caribbean. Convection persists over the SW Caribbean where a 1010 mb low pressure is observed along the monsoon trough near 12N83W. This convective activity covers the waters south of 13.5N between Colombia and Nicaragua. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean generating some shower activity as described above. Elsewhere, patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted. Moderate to fresh trades are across most of the Caribbean including through the Windward Passage. Caribbean, including the Windward passage. Seas are 5-8 ft in the Caribbean from 10N to 17N between 74W and 82W, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northward or northwestward. Regardless of development, strong winds along scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the NE Caribbean Fri night through Sat night. Strong winds are also expected Sat through Sun night in the southwestern Caribbean associated with low pressure forecast to develop along the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough. The low is expected to move northeastward toward the NE Caribbean by late Mon while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about Post- Tropical Cyclone Martin over the central north Atlantic. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located near 39.5N58W to 26N68W, continuing as stationary to 30N79W. A warm front also extends northeast of the low to 31N55W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are north of 20N between 60W and 66W along with 6-9 ft seas. A band of low clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front while disorganized showers and thunderstorms are related to the low center. Marine conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N48W to 20N61W. A wide-band of moderate convection is within 180 nm ahead of this trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are ahead of the trough in and near the convection. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1025 mb center situated west of the Madeira Islands near 33N20W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are under the influence of this high pressure. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending will weaken to a trough on Fri as a frontal boundary drops south and becomes stationary from near 31N52W to 30N60W and to 28N72W. Strong high pressure north of the area and in the wake of the front will lead to strong to near gale force easterly winds across the northern waters, mainly north of 27N through Sat night. Large NE swell following the front will push southward across the entire area over the weekend. Looking ahead, a large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. A tight pressure gradient between the low and strong high pressure to its north is expected to lead to a broad area of strong NE to E winds over most of the northern and western waters N of the Bahamas early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are possible over part of the NW forecast waters Tue and Tue night. $$ Lewitsky