000 AXNT20 KNHC 012130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 16.7N 83.3W at 01/2100 UTC or 190 nm E of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 80W and 89W including over portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Lisa is moving toward the west and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wed, move near Belize late on Wed and over southeastern Mexico on Thu. Further strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and continue to intensify on Wed as it approaches Belize. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Central America during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Martin is centered near 35.4N 54.5W at 01/2100 UTC or 550 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 75 nm in the southeast semicircle, and within 300 nm in the west quadrant and 600 nm in the north quadrant of Martin. Martin is moving toward the east and anticipated to turn toward the northeast at a faster rate of forward speed during the next two days. Martin is expected to become a hurricane by Wed afternoon or night before transitioning to a powerful extratropical system on Thu. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 18N southward to across Guyana, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is south of 13N between 59W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N25W to off the coast of Brazil near 01S42W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 08N between 10W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the upper Texas coast to around 60 nm offshore then back to the coast near the border with Mexico. Strong NE winds are noted in the coastal waters west of this feature per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data as well as from in- situ observations, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Some isolated showers and the occasional thunderstorm are occurring offshore western Cuba through the western Straits of Florida. Mainly fair weather is noted elsewhere across the basin, along with moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the trough situated just offshore the coast of Texas will continue to produce fresh to strong NE-E winds through this evening. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the basin producing mainly moderate NE-E winds through Thu. Southerly return flow is expected to strengthen over the NW Gulf toward the end of the work-week, ahead of a possible cold front entering the far W Gulf over the weekend. Looking ahead, the new forecast track of tropical cyclone Lisa brings the system into the SW Gulf Fri night or Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Lisa. A band of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted extending well east of Lisa within 19N78W to 15N73W to 12N73W to 12N76W to 14N76W to 18N80W to 19N78W. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are occurring elsewhere in the basin. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean. light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, Lisa will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 85.0W Wed morning, move to 17.2N 87.2W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 17.3N 88.9W Thu morning, inland to 17.3N 90.4W Thu afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 17.6N 91.9W Fri morning, and inland to 18.4N 93.4W Fri afternoon. Lisa will change little in intensity as it moves west of area to near 19.8N 94.2W Sat afternoon. With the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are forecast elsewhere through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about Tropical Storm Martin. A surface trough extends from 31N52W to 22N65W. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted north of 26N within 90 nm ahead of the trough, with similar winds north of 29N west of the trough to around 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft in NW-N swell are across the same area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm ahead of the trough from 23N to 29N. A weak trough extends from north of the area through 31N77W to near Melbourne, Florida with isolated showers possible near it. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the waters west of 55W. light to gentle winds are found under the ridge and outside the Bahamas, with moderate to fresh winds from north of Hispaniola through the Bahamas. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in N-NE swell elsewhere west of 55W. Ridging dominates the waters elsewhere east of 55W, extending from 31N25W to 23N55W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5-8 ft are south of 20N and west of 35W, with similar winds and 4-6 ft seas north of the ITCZ and east of 35W. Light to gentle winds and seas around 5 ft in northerly swell are elsewhere under the ridge axis. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from 31N52W to 22N65W will move across the NE waters through Wed. Another cold front will reach the N waters by Wed afternoon. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will bring strong easterly winds across the N waters, mainly north of 27N, Thu night through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Lewitsky