000 AXNT20 KNHC 310602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N 74.9W at 31/0300 UTC, or 170 nm SE of Kingston, Jamaica and moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident within 75 nm of the center. Recent ASCAT satellite scatterometer and altimetry data reveal the strongest E to SE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are up to 120 nm north and southeast of the center, south of Haiti. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm on Monday. It will continue on a general westward track with little change in forward speed for the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 18N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 51W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over central Africa based on the latest analysis. An ITCZ stretches westward from near the Guinea-Sierra Leone border across 7N30W to 10N51W, then from 10N54W to just south of Trinidad and Tobago. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to 100 nm north and 180 nm south of both ITCZ segments. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends southward from the Florida Panhandle to the east-central Gulf, then curves southwestward as a stationary front to near Vera Cruz, Mexico. Scattered showers are present near and up to 80 nm east of the cold front, and near the stationary front across the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 3 to 4 ft are evident at the north-central and southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Southerly gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. A 1017 mb high is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the northwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front portion will reach Panama City, Florida by Mon morning. The stationary front portion is expected to transition back to a cold front overnight and reach just north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon. The entire front should then stall on Mon evening before gradually lifting northward over the northern Gulf by Tue night. A low pressure will form along the weakening front just offshore Texas on Tue, inducing fresh to locally strong winds in the Texas offshore waters, before dissipating with the front Tue night. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds will then dominate the basin Wed through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen in the Central Caribbean Sea. A surface trough curves northeastward from off the Nicaragua coast through PTC Fifteen to over central Hispaniola. Convergent winds near and east of the trough are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the Nicaragua coast, and from the Mona Passage eastward across Hispaniola to the Virgin Islands. Farther south, convergent trades are producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern Colombia and the ABC Islands. Outside the influence of PTC Fifteen, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present over the eastern and northwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh SW to NW winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the west-central and south-central basin. Gentle northerly winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail at the southwestern basin. For the forecast, PTC Fifteen will move to near 16.0N 76.4W Mon morning while becoming a tropical storm. It will then move to near 16.7N 80.6W Tue morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 85.4W Wed morning, before moving inland into Central America late Wed night. Otherwise, with the exception of light to gentle variable winds in the SW basin, moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast elsewhere through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to generate widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 20N between 56W and 62W. A broad upper-level low is at the central Atlantic near 22N39W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near its center from 21N to 25N between 36W and 43W. A large area of strong divergent winds southeast of the low is inducing scattered moderate convection from 12N to 19N between 30W and 40W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1018 mb mid-Atlantic high is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 24N between the northwest African coast and 54W. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are seen south and southeast of Bermuda, north of 27N between 54W and 70W. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident north of 20N between 70W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present from 06N to 20N/24N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles/70W. Southerly trades with 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a low pressure system is centered N of the area near 34N63W. A weak cold front will develop from that low tonight into Monday and move across the waters north of 27N and east of 67W through Wed evening, when the front is expected to move E of 55W before dissipating. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will persist in the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches of the Windward Passage through Thu. $$ Chan