000 AXNT20 KNHC 292300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this weekend. Seas are currently 4-6 ft with fresh winds. This disturbance has a MEDIUM (50%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a HIGH (70%) chance of developing within the next five days. For more information, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 44W south of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant showers and thunderstorms are evident near the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... There is no monsoon trough over the Atlantic at this time. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 08N41W, and from 06N45W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Houma, Louisiana to Veracruz, Mexico. Strong winds and rough seas are currently within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz, where a large outflow boundary was observed on an earlier satellite imagery. Winds and seas are diminishing rapidly however as the airmass modifies and the front weakens. Moderate NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere west of the front. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted ahead of the front over the northeast Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will reach the Florida Panhandle to central Bay of Campeche by Sun afternoon, then dissipate in the eastern Gulf by Sun night into Mon. Winds and seas will increase Tue over the northwest Gulf as another boundary moves into the region, but beyond that high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate easterly winds and moderate seas across the basin through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a disturbance in the Central Caribbean. Broad 1007 mb low pressure is centered over the south-central Caribbean near 14N70W. A surface trough extends from just southeast of Jamaica to near Blanquilla Island in the southeast Caribbean. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are noted north of the trough across much of the northwest Caribbean. Fresh E winds are evident in this region with 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, at a minimum, even if the broad low does not develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas are likely across the north- central Caribbean through Mon, spreading into the northwest Caribbean through mid week. Moderate trades and seas will follow the low across the eastern and central Caribbean through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 mb low is centered north of the area close to Bermuda at 33N66W. A trough reaches to the southwest of the low toward the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate NE winds are evident west of this trough, although stronger winds are noted farther north off Georgia and the Carolinas. Associated northerly swell from these winds are reaching into the waters east of northeast Florida, where combined seas are 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, a mid to upper trough extends from 31N66W to central Hispaniola. A few showers are noted within 180 nm east of this feature. 1020 mb high pressure is centered east of that near 29N48W, with a trough farther east reaching from 31N31W to 29N43W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are note north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades with 6 to 8 ft seas south of 20N. For the west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will persist west of 70W through Mon morning. Northerly swell from these winds will enter the forecast waters this evening. The swell will bring moderate to rough seas in waters north of 29N and west of 60W. The swell will likely subside by Mon night. $$ Christensen