000 AXNT20 KNHC 261039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Oct 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front from extends from the central Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Gale force NW winds behind the front were occurring offshore of the Veracruz, Mexico area in recent hours, but have diminished below gale force since midnight. These strong NW winds are expected to persist between the front and the Veracruz area waters through sunrise, then quickly diminish this morning. Wave heights with these winds continue at 7 to 9 ft, and will also subside later this morning. Please see the High Sea Forecast issued by NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Eastern Caribbean Sea Heavy Rainfall: A deep-layer trough extends across the central Caribbean from Haiti to near northwest Colombia, and is drifting slowly eastward. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms continues on the east side of the trough from 64W to 70W, and is affecting areas from northern Colombia and western Venezuela northward across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and into the regional Atlantic waters to the north. A tropical wave along 65W has begun to transport moisture that is interacting with the upper trough, and will move slowly westward across the eastern Caribbean through late Thu. These two systems will combine to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, including Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic. The San Juan, Puerto Rico Doppler radar shows showers with scattered strong thunderstorms over the eastern half of Puerto Rico and and across the Virgin Islands. This weather has been gradually shifting eastward overnight. Frequent lightning, gusty winds and low visibilities in heavy rain are expected with the strong thunderstorms. Excessive heavy rainfall will likely result in localized flooding across portions of Puerto Rico, the US/UK Virgin Islands, and eastern Hispaniola through at least Thu. Residents in these locations should monitor this developing situation closely and stay informed with their local weather offices and authorities. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the wave axis mainly from 08N to 13N between 37W and 42W. Another tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 65W. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Overnight ASCAT data showed a sharp surface trough associated with the wave. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the wave axis, and has begun to increase to the NW of the wave across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 07N24W to 08.5N40W, then resumes from 08N44W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 15.5N between 27W and 36W, and within 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 55W and 61W. The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea roughly along 10N/11N and to near northwest Colombia. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of the trough to 06N across Costa Rica and Panama and into the local Pacific waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front from extends from the central Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche along 94W. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are seen along and behind the front near Veracruz, and within 180 nm E of the front to the N of 25N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and wave heights of 5-7 ft are behind the front and to the N of 21.5N. S of 21.5N NW to N winds to 30 kt and seas to 9 ft prevail offshore of Veracruz. A weak ridge dominates the eastern Gulf where light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will continuing moving SE and reach the Florida Big Bend to central Bay of Campeche this afternoon, before gradually dissipating from near Tampa Bay to the SW Gulf Wed night into Thu. Strong NW winds from the front to Veracruz, Mexico will diminish quickly this morning. Moderate to fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Fri afternoon. This next front will stall and weaken in the central Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for potential heavy rain across the eastern Caribbean Sea this week. The deep-layer trough across the central basin continues to support a 180 nm wide band of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms extending from NW Venezuela NNE across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds behind the tropical wave located along 65W. Seas have recently built to 4-6 ft in E swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection has recently begun to flare up across the SE Caribbean behind the wave. Moderate NE winds are in the lee of eastern Cuba while moderate easterly winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds are seen elsewhere across the western basin, where seas are generally 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the basin W of 70W through Fri. A deep layered trough N to S across the central Caribbean will drift E today and then gradually lift northward through the remainder of the week. A tropical wave along 65W will move westward and become absorbed within the trough along 68W Wed night through Thu night. This interaction will induce numerous thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin tonight through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing E swell across the Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean through Wed. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development as the low drifts westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Caribbean this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layered trough of low pressure stretches from the central Caribbean along 72W, northward across Hispaniola to the southwestern Atlantic along 73W-74W, and is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms between 62W and 70W. At the surface, a weak trough is analyzed along 71W/72W with a 1010 mb low pressure analyzed near 27N72.5W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward. The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend. A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located mid-way between the Azores and the Madeira Islands to 28N30W to 31N46W where it becomes stationary. Mainly low clouds and possible showers are along the frontal boundary. N swell will follow this front bringing seas of 8-12 ft roughly across the waters N of 29N and E of 45W Wed into Thu. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 22N to 30N between 40W and 52W associated with an upper-level trough. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters in under the influence of high pressure with a center of 1016 mb situated SW of the Canary Islands near 24.5N25W. Seas of 5-8 ft are noted over the tropical Atlantic between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the deep layered trough will drift slowly eastward to 70W through Thu and continue to produce very active weather E of the trough axis. Low pres is expected to develop near 28N68W by Thu afternoon and move to near 31N68W early Sat, where it will remain nearly stationary through the upcoming weekend. $$ Stripling