000 AXNT20 KNHC 242332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure system located about 90 nm ESE of Bermuda now has a well-defined defined center. It is producing a relatively concentrated area of numerous moderate convection from 33N to 36N between 62W-66W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is evident from 31N to 32N between 57W-62W, and also from 27N to 31N between 50W-61W. Wave heights of 8-9 ft due to a northeast to east swell are over the waters southeast of the low pressure, generally from 29N to 31N between 54W-63W. If the convective activity persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should limit additional development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 03N to 15N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 05N to 18N moving westward at 5-10 kt. Strong upper level westerly wind shear continues to displace an area of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection to the east of the wave axis from 07N to 13N between 50W and 54W. Similar activity is within 60 nm west of the wave axis from 07N to 11N. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 75W from Colombia to the southwest tip of Haiti. It is moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the wave from 13N to 15N. Deep-layer troughing is expected to develop N to S across the central Caribbean during the next few days and absorb the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 11N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N32W. It resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N37W and continues to 07N42W and to 09N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 16W-19W, and within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W-32W The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the southwestern Caribbean roughly along 10N/11N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 12N between 74W-79W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the eastern United States extends southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. It continues to maintain a fairly dry weather pattern. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Texas is supporting fresh to strong southeast to south winds over the western Gulf west of about 94W. Buoys are reporting wave heights of 6-9 ft north of 22N and west of 94W, due to a south swell and 3-6 ft south of 22N. Moderate to fresh southeast winds along with wave heights of 3-5 ft are over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeast to south winds west of 94W will continue through tonight as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. This front will move off the Texas coast late tonight or early Tue morning, and reach from Mobile Bay to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night. The front will then slow down and weaken, and gradually dissipate Wed night into Thu. In the wake of the cold front, strong to near gale force north winds are expected in the far NW Gulf Tue morning, off Tampico Tue afternoon, and off Veracruz Tue night. Fresh return flow will develop across NW portions Thu night through Fri, ahead of the next approaching cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The southern extension of of the western Atlantic sharp upper- level trough stretches from eastern Cuba southwestward to inland norther Nicaragua. A very moist and unstable environment east of this trough is sustaining scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean south of 16N to the coast of Colombia and between 72W-78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean south of 16N between 63W-70W. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting generally gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin along with relatively low wave heights of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the regional Atlantic and Caribbean waters will lead to gentle to moderate trade winds and light to moderate wave heights through Wed night. A deep-layer trough is expected to develop across the central Caribbean Tue through Thu and drift eastward as the tropical wave along 54W moves westward and combines with the trough over the eastern Caribbean by Thu. These features are likely to initiate numerous showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the basin Tue through Thu. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and increasing east swell will move into Tropical Atlantic waters Tue afternoon and gradually shift into the far eastern Caribbean Wed night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a tropical disturbance east of Bermuda. A surface trough over the western Atlantic extends N to S along 72W/73W. This feature, in combination with a sharp upper-level trough that extends from near 31N77W, south-southwestward to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba as seen in water vapor imagery, is triggering clusters of scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 68W-74W. This activity is also over the north-central section of Hispaniola and extreme eastern Cuba. Latest ASCAT data passes depict moderate north to northeast winds west of the trough. Wave heights with these winds are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are east of the trough also with wave heights of 4-6 ft. In the central Atlantic, a rather moist and unstable atmosphere is supporting an area of scattered moderate convection from 19N to 30N and between 50W-57W. Gentle anticyclonic flow dominates the area north of 20N where wave heights are in the 5-7 ft range. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is just north of the area along 32N between 20W-32W. No convection is along it, but to its east and southeast areas of rain containing possible embedded scattered showers are noted north of 29N between 11W-20W. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are over the eastern part of the area around the eastern periphery of central Atlantic high pressure. Wave heights there are in the 6-8 ft range due to a northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the moderate convection associated to the N to S oriented surface trough along 72W/73W will continue tonight into Tue. The trough will drift slowly eastward and reorganize along along 70W Tue through Thu. Low pressure is expected to develop near 29N70W by Thu night. $$ Aguirre