000 AXNT20 KNHC 220557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 19N southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 09N to 11N between 40W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 08N to 17N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 22N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, is from 20N to 25N between 45W and 60W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with an upper level inverted trough, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N southward between the Cabo Verde Islands and the 52W/53W tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough is curving from the area of the 29N43W 1012 mb low pressure center, toward the 31N56W 27N52W surface trough, toward the NE Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Venezuela. An upper level trough has been in the same area during the last few days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and within 270 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, to 09N20W 07N26W 08N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 40W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend, southwestward, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N97W. Moderate or slower wind speeds span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet everywhere. Weak high pressure centered along the NE Gulf coast will dominate this weekend as it drifts NE. This pattern will allow for fresh S winds to develop across the W Gulf Sat, with strong winds expected NW portions Sat night through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue morning and reach from SE Louisiana to the western Bay of Campeche Tue night, followed by fresh northerly winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the southeast of the stationary front, including in parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough is curving from the area of the 29N43W 1012 mb low pressure center, toward the 31N56W 27N52W surface trough, toward the NE Caribbean Sea, to the coast of Venezuela. An upper level trough has been in the same area during the last few days. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow, and within 270 nm on either side of the tropical wave. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from Colombia along 74W, westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and sea heights reaching 6 feet, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area. Fresh winds are in the coastal waters of NW Venezuela and Colombia. Mostly moderate winds or slower, cover the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the N coast of Honduras along 87W. This front will meander and gradually dissipate this weekend. Fresh N to NE winds will prevail behind the front in the NW Caribbean Sea through tonight before diminishing. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to the Bahamas near 24N76W, beyond Cuba near 22N78W, to the NW coast of Honduras. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the northwest of the stationary front, from Cuba northeastward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the northwest of the line 31N63W 20N70W, to NE Nicaragua. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet, generally, from 10N northward from 60W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, from 27N northward between 48W and 53W. Some sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet, elsewhere, from 10N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh winds are from 17N to 25N from 35W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 29N43W. Strong to near gale-force winds are within 420 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A surface trough is along 27N52W 30N56W beyond 31N56W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward between 30W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea heights are ranging from 10 feet to 11 feet, from 27N northward between 48W and 53W. Fresh to strong winds are from 25N between 44W and 54W. It is possible that the 1012 mb low pressure center may acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics by early next week. The environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development during the next few days. The low pressure center is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward from 20 mph to 25 mph in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. More development appears to be unlikely, as the system is forecast to move into cooler waters and encounter stronger upper level winds, by the middle of the next week. Please, refer to the following webpage for more details: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. A surface trough extends from 31N71W across the NW Bahamas to the N coast of Cuba along 80W. A stationary front from SW of Bermuda through central Cuba will dissipate this weekend. The surface trough will lift N through the weekend, with low pressure expected to develop near 29N76W Sat afternoon then move N of the area by Sun afternoon. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north of the Bahamas to strengthen to fresh to strong speeds Sat through Sun before diminishing. $$ mt