000 AXNT20 KNHC 201104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Oct 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W from 04N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 10N between 31W-37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 23N46W to 16N45W to 10N44W. It is moving westward from 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm east of the wave from 18N to 23N. Scattered moderate is east of the wave within 30 nm of 17N43W. An overnight ASCAT pass revealed fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of the wave from 19N to 23N. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-9 ft range. A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 04N to 18N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 13N to 18N between 53W-57W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over western Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of Senegal and Mauritania along 16N to 17N22W, where latest scatterometer data indicated that it transitions to the ITCZ to extends from 10N27W to 05N40W to 05N50W to 04N57W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave along 34W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 24W-31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is continuing to builds over the area. The earlier gale force northwest to north winds in the far southwestern Gulf, south of 21N west of 95W, have diminished to fresh to strong winds per a recent ship observation in that area. Seas of 9-12 ft there will slowly subside today. A cold air mass filtering across the Gulf in combination with relatively warm sea surface temperatures is resulting stratocumulus type clouds over the Gulf south of about 28N. Isolated showers are possible over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly wind speeds are elsewhere over the Gulf outside the southwest Gulf. Wave heights are in the range of 8-11 ft elsewhere over the southwestern Gulf and 4-7 ft over the rest of the Gulf, except for lower wave heights of 3-4 ft over the norther part of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the area will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Sat night allowing for fresh southerly flow to set up over the western Gulf beginning Sat. Winds are expected to diminish slightly Mon night. A cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Mon night followed by fresh to strong north winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east-central Cuba to inland southern Belize. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are west of the front to a line from 22N82W to 20N88W. An upper-level trough extends from the central Atlantic to the northeast part of the sea and to the northwest part of Venezuela. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 13N and east of 70W. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N from northwestern Colombia, westward from there to across northern Panamas and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and just offshore the northwest coast of Colombia. Wave heights range from 3-5 ft over the southeastern and south- central sections of the sea. Lower wave heights of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are east of 76W per latest ASCAT data passes, while light to gentle trade winds are over the remainder of the sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from east central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Thu, then become stationary on Fri as low pressure develops along the frontal boundary northeast of the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas will follow the front. The front will remain stationary on Sat while gradually weakening. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N70W to 25N76W to central Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within about 240 nm east of the front, while broken to overcast multilayer clouds with embedded areas of rain along with scattered showers are west of the front to a line from 31N75W to 23N81W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N44W southwest to 30N50W and to 27N55W. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 27N33W. Gentle to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow is present north of 20N and east of 40W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are from 17N to 25N and east of 25W, and also from 06N to 24N between 25W-40W as seen in overnight ASCAT data passes. Moderate winds are seen from 14N to 21N between 50W-60W. Light to gentle trade winds are over the rest of Atlantic. Wave heights are in the 7-9 ft range north of 14N and east of 40W as seen in a recent altimeter data pass. Some wave heights in the 4-6 ft range are mixed into the same area. Wave heights of 3-5 ft are over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become become stationary from near 31N69W to 27N75W and to central Cuba this afternoon and remain through Thu. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will follow the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of the front. Low pressure is forecast to develop Thu along the frontal boundary NE of the NW Bahamas. The low will lift just N of the area Fri through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for northeast winds over the waters north and northwest of the Bahamas to gradually strengthen to moderate to fresh speeds during the weekend. $$ Aguirre