000 AXNT20 KNHC 172202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Alabama to southern Texas. The front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to NE Mexico near 25N98W by Tue morning, and from the Florida Keys to the central Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force winds and building seas of up to 14 or 16 ft will are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gales are forecast near the Tampico area late Tue morning into the afternoon hours, spreading into the Veracruz region Tue night into Wed. Winds will diminish below gale force by Wed night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 16N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 16W and 21W. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 16N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 30W and 40W. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W from 17N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is present. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 76W, from 16N southward, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 74W and 78W. The axis of a Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is near 93W south of 21N across southeastern Mexico into the East Pacific, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 11N50W. Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 22W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for a Gale Warning in the west-central Gulf. A cold front extends from Alabama to southern Texas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted over the northwestern Gulf behind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail over the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions, high pressure will build in the wake of the front with improving conditions for the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds are found over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across most of the Caribbean during the next several days. A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel and to along the northern Yucatan Peninsula by Thu morning followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds with moderate seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Thu afternoon, then stall while gradually weakening Fri into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N58W to 24N68W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm east of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N. South of 20N, fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 36W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted north of 20N, reaching near 8 ft north of 27N between 27N and 40W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore NE Florida this evening, reach from near 31N77W to Daytona Beach, Florida Tue morning, from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Wed morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are forecast ahead of the front and north and northeast of the Bahamas tonight and Tue. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow the front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the wake of the front. $$ AL