000 AXNT20 KNHC 150402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 19.1N 92.8W at 15/0300 UTC or 65 nm WNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving S at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Nearly all significant convection has dissipated tonight, with the exception of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NE quadrant. Seas have abated to 6 to 8 ft in the central Bay of Campeche. The slow southward motion is expected to continue as Karl transitions to a post-tropical low near the Mexican coast over the next 12 hours. Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 29W, from 02N to 13N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N, between 24W and 34W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through both 48 hours and 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W from 03N to 17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 20N, between 39W and 44W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 02N to 18N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 22N, between 49W and 55W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to 20N, moving west at 5 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N37W. All significant convection along this boundary is associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave described above. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about Tropical Depression Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche. Outside of the Bay of Campeche, a stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from near Tampa, FL to Port OConnor TX. While this front isnt causing significant impacts, there are some isolated thunderstorms south of the boundary. Otherwise, winds are gentle to moderate from the east with 3-5 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Karl near 19.1N 92.8W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT moving S at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Karl will become a remnant low and move to 18.6N 93.2W Sat morning, 18.2N 93.6W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, a stationary front from Tampa Bay to Corpus Christi, Texas, will dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the far southeastern Gulf late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section for information about the tropical wave in the Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW Caribbean where winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Wed night. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel Wed night along with fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. In the western Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from 31N75W to 28N80W near Cape Canaveral, FL. Convection is limited along the boundary at this time. North of the front, winds are moderate from the north. South and East of the front, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the S-E. A series of NE-SW oriented surface troughs are triggering scattered moderate convection from 24N to 31N, between 65W and 75W. In the central Atlantic, an upper level trough is supporting isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 31N, between 40W and 55W. Otherwise, winds are moderate to fresh from the E with 4-8 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 5-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front across the offshore waters N of Freeport Island in the Bahamas will transition back to a cold front Sat morning and reach from Bermuda to Andros Island Sat evening then stall from SE of Bermuda to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida Straits Tue night. $$ Flynn