000 AXNT20 KNHC 142320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Oct 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 19.5N 92.9W at 14/2100 UTC or 80 nm NW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 20N, between 90W and 95W. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant with peak seas of 13 ft. Seas 8 ft or greater are limited to the Bay of Campeche S of 20N. A southwestward motion is expected during the next day or so as Karl moves over the Bay of Campeche. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should be near the coast of southern Mexico on Saturday. Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican coastline through Saturday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 27W from 02N to 13N moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between 23W and 30W. This tropical wave has a low probability of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and 5 days. A tropical wave extends along 43W, from 03N to 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 06N-17N between 33W-43W. A tropical wave extends along 51W, from 03N to 18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 19N between 48W and 58W. A tropical wave extends along 78W, from 06N to 20N, moving W at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is present with this feature at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Senegal and Guinea- Bissau near 13N17W to 05N35W. Outside of the convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche. Outside of the Bay of Campeche, fair conditions prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends across the N Gulf from 28N83W to 27N92W, then the front becomes stationary to 28N96W. No significant convection is noted with the fronts at this time, though a few showers are evident near the boundary on visible satellite. Moderate E winds are south of the front, with moderate NE winds north of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.1N 93.1W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 18.4N 93.8W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, the front will stall tonight and dissipate Sun. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front is likely to reach the far southeastern Gulf late Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the tropical waves section for information about the tropical wave in the Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas across most of the basin, except in the NW Caribbean where winds are light and variable and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean through Sun and diminish to light to gentle wind speeds Sun night into Tue night. A weak cold front may stall near the Yucatan Channel Sun before dissipating Sun night. Another cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel during the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. In the NW discussion waters, a cold front enters the area near 31N76W and extends to 29N80W. No convection is noted with the cold front at this time. Southeast and ahead of the front, a trough enters the discussion waters near 31N74W and continues southwest to 27N79W. Scattered moderate convection ahead of the trough is north of 23N between 67W and 77W. In the central Atlantic, an area of scattered moderate convection enhanced by an upper-level low is from 24N to 31N between 47W and 54W. NE to E winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern and central Atlantic with seas of 4-7 ft. E to SE winds are gentle in the W Atlantic, with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue moving SE and reach a Bermuda to Bahamas line late Sat, then stall from SE of Bermuda to NE of the Turks and Caicos Sun night, before gradually dissipating early next week. Another cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. Mon night, then reach from 31N73W to the Florida Straits Tue night. $$ ERA