000 AXNT20 KNHC 140939 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Oct 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 20.2N 92.4W at 14/0900 UTC or 100 nm NNW of Ciudad Del Carmen Mexico moving SE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed is S of 22N, E of 94W. Peak seas are 13 ft in the southern semicircle. Karl is expected to turn southward or south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche later today, and this motion should continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Karl should reach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Saturday. Little change in strength is expected before the center of Karl reaches the coast. Steady weakening is expected after the storm crosses the coastline, and the system is forecast to dissipate over southern Mexico by Saturday night. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23W from 02N to 16N moving west at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low is analyzed along the wave near 08N23W. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 10N, between 23W and 28W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N, between 20W and 24W and a recent scatterometer pass also found fresh to strong southerly winds in this area. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slow development during the next few days while the system moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There is currently a low probability of formation through both 48 hours and 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 39W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. While the associated convection is isolated and weak, a recent scatterometer pass found moderate to locally fresh winds near the northern end of the wave. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 50W, from 02N to 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 18N, between 41W and 51W. This wave has been relocated a couple hundred miles farther east from the previous analysis due to a scatterometer pass confirming a pronounced shift in the surface winds. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from Haiti to Colombia, moving W at 10 kts. The majority of the convection is over Colombia and the coastal waters near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N41W. Convection is weak other than the areas associated with tropical waves discussed above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the Bay of Campeche. Outside of T.S. Karl, surface ridging from the north and east is interrupted by lower pressure and disturbed weather over Florida. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 23N to 27N, east of 88W. Winds are moderate north of 26N and east of 87W, and fresh to strong closer to Karl. Wave heights are elevated due to swell from Karl. Expect moderate heights in the western Gulf and slight seas with a longer period in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl near 20.6N 92.8W 998 mb at 11 PM EDT moving SE at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Karl will move to 19.9N 92.6W Fri morning, 19.0N 92.8W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.0N 93.4W Sat morning, and dissipate Sat evening. Elsewhere, a cold front will drop southward over the far northern Gulf by late tonight, then move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night and stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. A stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. This next front may reach the far southeastern Gulf late on Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela. Elsewhere, a relatively weak pressure gradient is resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin. No significant convection is noted across the basin at this time. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. A cold front may approach the NW Caribbean Tue night into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A recent scatterometer pass revealed a N-S oriented surface trough in the western Atlantic along 80W with another E-W oriented trough through the Florida Straits. These disturbances are supporting scattered moderate convection over a large portion of the western Atlantic from 21N to 31N, between 66W and 81W. Winds in this area are mainly moderate and generally from the SW to SE outside of thunderstorms, with 3-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic a pair of parallel NE-SW oriented surface troughs are supporting scattered moderate convection from 22N to 31N, between 45W and 56W. Otherwise, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE with 5-7 seas. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh NE to E winds are generating 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before dissipating through late Mon. Another cold front will move over the waters east of northern Florida Mon and Mon night, reach from near 31N76W to Vero Beach, Florida Tue morning and from near 31N73W to South Florida late Tue. $$ Ramos