734 AXNT20 KNHC 131804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Karl, at 13/1800 UTC, is near 21.2N 93.7W, or about 345 km/186 nm to the north of Coatzacoalcos in Mexico. Karl is moving SSE, or 155 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical storm force winds are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 70 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 50 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights that are 12 feet or higher are within: 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 45 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 45 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, elsewhere, from 21N to 23N between 93W and 95W. The wind speeds are 20 knots or less, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet in mixed swell, from 21N to 25N between 92W and 97W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the south of the line: 28N at the western coast of Florida, 27N90W, 26N at the coast of Texas. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the latest Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml,for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has reached 21W/22W, from 13N southward. The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1013 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 07.5N. The enviornmental conditions appear to be marginally favorable for some slow development of this system, as it moves westward to west-northwestward, 5 to 10 mph in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, through early next week. Precipitation: widely scattered to isolated strong is from 01N to 11N between 16W and 31W. An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 16N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 20N between 30W and 50W. A central Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the coast of South America to 14N between 50W and 62W. The precipitation is occurring near the ITCZ also. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from Hispaniola southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between 66W and 84W. The precipitation is also near the monsoon trough, that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to the 1013 mb low pressure center that is along the 21W/22W tropical wave, to 05N40W. The ITCZ is along 08N/09N between 55W and 62W. Precipitation: please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section, for details about the precipitation. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and areas of comparatively drier air in subsidence, are from 20N northward from 30W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Tropical Storm Karl, which is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 5 feet, cover much of the Gulf of Mexico, except for the SW corner. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 9 feet, cover the remainder of the SW Gulf of Mexico, away from Tropical Storm Karl. Tropical Storm Karl is in the southwestern Gulf near 21.7N 93.9W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving SSE at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Karl will weaken slightly as moves to near 21.0N 93.6W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, then maintain intensity as it moves to near 20.0N 93.3W Fri morning, and to near 19.1N 93.4W Fri evening. Karl is forecast to move inland near 18.0N 94.3W Sat morning, weaken to a remnant low near 17.0N 95.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Elsewhere, a weak cold front will enter the northwest Gulf Thu, move across the central Gulf Fri and Fri night, then stall from the Straits of Florida to vicinity Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night before dissipating by late Mon. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Mon night preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 10N/12N from Colombia along 74W, westward, beyond Costa Rica, and into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. This precipitation is to the west of the Hispaniola tropical wave. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the peripheral areas of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in the broad and open areas of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are pulsing off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. A relatively weak pressure pattern is resulting in gentle to moderate winds in the remainder of the area. Moderate to fresh trade wind flow is in the south central Caribbean Sea. The sea heights are reaching 8 ft off Colombia, where the winds may be pulsing in the range from 20 knots to 25 knots. Moderate winds and seas are in the remainder of the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, will persist across most areas of the Caribbean into early next week. A weak cold front will stall near the Yucatan Channel Sat through Sun night and dissipate by late Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low pressure center, and a surface trough, are in the coastal waters of Georgia and South Carolina. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward from 65W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and areas of widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation, are from 18N northward between 34W and 62W. A surface trough is along 31N51W to 25N57W to 18N58W. from 18N northward between 34W and 62W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, covers the Atlantic Ocean from the surface trough eastward. Fresh E winds may be near the northern approaches of the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the areas that are from 60W westward. Moderate winds and seas are elsewhere from 35W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas are off the northwest coast of Africa north of 15N, from 35W eastward. Broad high pressure over the area is shifting eastward ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida tonight. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Sat night, then become mostly stationary along 24N Sun before dissipating through late Mon. $$ mt/ja