000 AXNT20 KNHC 112356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Oct 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karl forms in the Bay of Campeche. At 12/0000 UTC, Karl is centered near 20.1N 94.8W or 100 nm ENE of Veracruz Mexico moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 21N to 24N between 92W and 96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 24N between 90W and 97W. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican coastline in the watch area, from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, starting Thursday. heavy rainfall are expected across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and over the Southern Sierra Madre Oriental and adjacent coast. Swells generate by Karl are expected to effect the Mexican coastline for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website hhttps://ww.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT@.shtml and the latest Karl NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted over W Africa and coastal waters, roughly from Liberia to southern Senegal likely associated with the next tropical wave forecast to move off the African coast in about 12-24 hours based on the Tropical Wave Diagnostics. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 03N to 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are behind the wave axis affecting the Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W, from 05N to 17N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is where the waves meets the ITCZ, particularly from 06N to 12N, between 40W and 48W. Another tropical wave extends along 61W, from 07N to 18N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is generating some shower and thunderstorm activity over the Lesser Antilles. Convection increases over the NE Venezuela likely associated with the wave. Moisture related to this wave will continue affect mainly the Windward Islands and northern Venezuela tonight and Wed. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to 09N42W where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. Then, the ITCZ continues west of the wave from 09N45W to 05N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 11N between 26W and 50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the ITCZ to about 10N W of 50W. A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karl located over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. NW winds of 30-35 kt are observed near the Veracruz area, with seas of 8 to 12 ft based on altimeter data. The fresh to strong winds extends within about 120 nm in the northern semicircle of Karl. Elsewhere across the Gulf moderate to locally fresh winds prevail with seas of 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft over the NE part of the Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karl will move to 20.3N 94.9W Wed morning, 21.1N 95.3W Wed afternoon, 21.2N 96.0W Thu morning, 20.7N 96.3W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 96.6W Fri morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 19.9N 97.0W Fri afternoon. A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf by Thu. The front will reach the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the Gulf Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean Sea is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. Seas are 6-8 ft over the south-central Caribbean according to an altimeter pass, 4-6 ft across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. Some convective activity is noted over the Greater Antilles due to local effects. For the forecast, fresh winds over northwest Caribbean will diminish through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds will pulse near the coast over the south-central Caribbean through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. A cold front will enter the far northwest Caribbean by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. A few showers are along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds are between the front and high pressure over the SE CONUS. A surface trough extends 29N55W to 23N65W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are within about 120 nm on the E side of the trough from 23N-27N. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the waters W of 55W. E of 55W, high pressure of 1029 mb located over the western Azores extends a ridge across the remainder of the atlantic forecast waters. Mainly moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted per scatterometer data from 10N to 30N E of 50W. Seas generally 5-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the A stationary front will dissipate as it lifts northward through tonight. A cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu. The front will continue southeastward and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat. $$ GR