000 AXNT20 KNHC 110600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad surface trough near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is generating sporadic deep convection across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, southeastern Mexico and western Guatemala. Heavy rain will increase the chance of flash flooding and mudslides, especially at hilly terrains. In the Gulf waters including the Bay of Campeche, heavy showers can cause reduced visibilities; fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are also expected. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development, and there is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical depression at the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the next 24 hours. Please read the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC at www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 for more detail. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from just west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 16N southward, and moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 27W and 30W, and near the southern Cabo Verde Islands. A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 54W from 16N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and just east of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Senegal-Gambia border to southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N19W. Scattered showers are occurring south of the trough near the coast of Guinea and Sierra Leone. An ITCZ meanders westward from 08N30W across 06N40W to northeast of the French Guiana-Brazil border at 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection can be found up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near northwest Colombia and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on potential tropical cyclone development, heavy rain and rough seas at the southwestern Gulf. A stationary front extends west-southwestward from near Sarasota, Florida to the central Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present up to 40 nm along either side of this feature. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except the southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the Gulf through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, extend across the central Gulf Fri, and move southeast of the Gulf Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent surface winds ahead of a surface trough over the central basin is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Windward Passage, Jamaica and southeastern Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist at the south-central basin and northwestern corner of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh E to ESE trades with 4 to 6 ft seas are found at the eastern and north-central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean overnight. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the far northwestern basin by Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from just north of Bermuda across 31N72W to near Melbourne, Florida. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are up to 40 nm along either side of the front. Two surface troughs are generating scattered moderate convection north of the southeast Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 67W and 72W, and in the central Atlantic north of 22N between 50W and 56W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The 1030 mb Azores High and its related ridge are supporting light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 50W and the Georgia-Florida coast. To the east, moderate to locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident north of 20N between the African coast and 50W. Farther south, gentle to moderate ENE trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are found from 10N to 20N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be reinforced tonight and move slight southward. The front will stall from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate as it lifts northward through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat morning. $$ Chan