000 AXNT20 KNHC 100906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is observed. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 47W and 51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 07N to 09N and between 33W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 24N92W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds across the central Gulf, between high pressure north of the area over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys and lower pressure farther south over western Caribbean and eastern Pacific. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass and regional buoy data showed seas of 6 to 8 ft across the central Gulf. The scatterometer also shows fresh to strong NW winds over the far southwest Gulf, along the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz, west of a trough extending from Tampico to Coatzacoalcos. A concurrent altimeter showed seas to 9 ft off the port of Veracruz. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will lift northward as a weak warm front over the eastern and central Gulf into Tue while gradually dissipating. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through early Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the central Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Julia is over the eastern Pacific, centered along the central coast of El Salvador. This pattern is assisting a large a of showers and thunderstorms are active over the far northwest Caribbean north of Honduras and east of Belize. Scatterometer satellite data and ship observations in this area, indicate fresh to strong E winds. Wave heights are likely approaching 8 ft in this area as well. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas are observed, except for fresh winds in the Windward passage, off Cabo Beata of Hispaniola, and between central Panama and San Andres Island in the southwest Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the far northwest Caribbean through late today. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week as a weak tropical wave enters the region. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N74W to near Palm Bay, Florida. A trough is analyzed ahead of the front, from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Favorable upper level winds are supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms along the trough. Gentle to moderate E winds and moderate seas are evident west of 55W, except for winds to 20 kt across the southern Bahamas and near the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Farther east, an upper low is centered near 24N52W. An associated surface trough extends from 31N50W to 25N57W. Scattered showers are evident within 240 nm east of the surface trough. To the east of the trough, a 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 35N36W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of this ridge, between 35W and 55W. East of 35W, moderate NE winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be reinforced today and move slight southward today, before stalling again from near Bermuda to east-central Florida by late Tue, then dissipate at it lifts northward through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat morning. $$ Christensen