000 AXNT20 KNHC 100546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0525 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Only isolated weak showers are present near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the wave from 09N to 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 06N to 10N and between 28W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N93W. Divergence aloft and a moisture-rich environment support a few showers over the SE Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a broad ridge positioned over the eastern and south- central United States. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in Central America, primarily associated with Tropical Storm Julia, sustain fresh to strong NE-N winds across most of the Gulf. The strongest winds are found north of the Yucatan Peninsula and offshore Veracruz. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring over most of the Gulf, except for 2-4 ft found within 100 nm of the northern, eastern and western coasts. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 7 ft near 24N90W and localized 9 ft off Veracruz. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will persist over the eastern Gulf through late Mon then dissipate. Expect mainly moderate to fresh NE winds across much of the basin through late Tue as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure across the eastern Pacific. Fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through Tue. Looking ahead, another front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thu, and extending across the central Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Julia has moved into the Eastern Pacific and it is currently located near the coast of El Salvador. An outer rainband continues to generate a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean, mainly confined S of 20N and W of 81W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure system over the United States and Julia allows for fresh to strong E-SE winds in the waters of the Gulf of Honduras and off the coast of Nicaragua. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue to affect SE Mexico and western Central America during the next few days. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across Central America through today. Flash flooding is anticipated across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early this week. In the eastern Caribbean Sea, an upper level low is centered south of the Virgin Islands and a surface trough extends from 20N61W to 15N65W. The interaction of these features and abundant tropical moisture continue to enhance the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the NE Caribbean, and also affecting the neighboring islands. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are noted on the latest scatterometer satellite data across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea outside of the influence of Julia. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, squalls on the periphery of Tropical Storm Julia, now over the eastern Pacific, will bring strong winds and occasional rough seas to portions of the far northwest Caribbean west of 85W through Mon night. Farther east, fresh winds impacting the northern Windward Passage following a trough moving through Cuba will diminish through early Mon. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds pulsing near the coast over the south-central Caribbean will diminish by mid week as a weak tropical wave enters the region. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas will diminish across the basin by late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from 31N75W to the Space Coast of Florida, while a dissipating stationary front meanders the waters of the western tropical Atlantic from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. Divergence aloft and a moisture-laden environment support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 100 nm of these boundaries. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found S of 25N and W of 55W, with seas of 3-5 ft. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic W of 55W, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. Scattered showers are affecting the waters east of the Lesser Antilles, mainly from 11N and 17N and W of 55W. In the north-central Atlantic, a surface trough is noted from 31N47W to 24N52W, while a stationary upper level low is seen near 25N53W. Widely scattered showers are occurring N of 22N and between 44W and 58W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge positioned near 35N36W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly winds from 08N to 27N and between 30W and 53W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, jet activity aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along a dissipating stationary front from the northern Bahamas to Bermuda. Farther north, another frontal boundary from 31N75W to east-central Florida will dissipate as it lifts north through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move off the coast of northeast Florida late Thu, and reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri night to early Sat morning. $$ DELGADO