000 AXNT20 KNHC 082059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Julia is centered near 12.6N 81.3W at 08/2100 UTC or 50 nm S of Isla De Providencia Colombia moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong thunderstorms are noted within about 60 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong convection extending up to 480 nm from the center in outer rain bands. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 50 nm in the south semicircle, 180 nm in the northeast quadrant, and 90 nm in the northwest quadrant. The peak seas near the center are estimated at 20 ft. Environmental conditions favor strengthening this evening and tonight before Julia reaches the coast of Nicaragua, especially if the recent burst of deep convection can remain near or over the center. As such, Julia is still forecast to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. After landfall, fast weakening is expected, but Julia is forecast to be at or near tropical storm strength when it emerges off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua due to its fast transit across the country. Rainfall of 6-12 inches is forecast over San Andres and Providencia, Colombia, 5-10 inches with isolated 15 inches over Nicaragua, and 4-8 inches isolated 12 inches over the remainder of Central America, through Tue. Life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office and read the latest NHC Public Advisory and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W/41W, from 03N to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast near the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 07N18N. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N37W where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues west of the wave from 04N43W to 02N51W along the NE coast of Brazil. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 08N between 21W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from northern Florida near 29N83W to offshore the northern Gulf through 28N90W to near Corpus Christi, Texas at 27N97.5W. No convection is noted near the front with moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-3 ft seas behind/north of it. A surface trough is analyzed over eastern Mexico near 24N98.5W to across the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche to 18.5N92W. Scattered showers are occurring near and east of the trough. Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NW-N winds and seas of 3-5 ft west of the trough. Elsewhere, the gradient between high pressure ridging over the Gulf and Tropical Storm Julia in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the basin with 2-4 ft seas, on a building trend. For the forecast, a cold front currently moving across the northern Gulf waters will reach from near Lake Okeechobee to the SW Gulf by Sun morning, then stall over the southeastern Gulf on Mon, and lift northward on Tue while dissipating. Expect increasing NE winds across much of the basin Sun afternoon through late Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure across the Gulf region and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. An area of fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough seas will persist over the far southwest Gulf off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Sun through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Tropical Storm Julia in the southwest Caribbean Sea. Marine impacts from Tropical Storm Julia extend throughout the majority of the basin west of 70W. East of 70W, moderate easterly winds prevail. In the central Caribbean, winds are fresh to strong from the east with an abating swell of 6-8 ft from Julia's passage yesterday. In the NW Caribbean, winds are fresh from the NE with 4-6 ft seas on a building trend. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julia near 12.6N 81.3W 992 mb at 5 PM EDT moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Julia will strengthen to a hurricane near 12.5N 83.3W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 12.6N 86.0W Sun afternoon, 12.8N 88.7W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 13.3N 91.3W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds with moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean between Julia and high pressure NE of the area will diminish by tonight. Similar winds and seas are expected over the NW Caribbean through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 31N62W, across the far NW Bahamas to 25N80W near south Florida. Weak showers are noted near the front, with scattered thunderstorms from 23N to 25.5N between 76.5W and 80.5W south of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are noted within 60 nm along and north of the boundary. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE-E winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the sub-basin, except 2-4 ft offshore northern Florida. In the central Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 31N40W to 25N44W with scattered moderate convection from 25N to 29N between 41W and 48W. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, subtropical high pressure north of the area is supporting mainly moderate to fresh easterly wind with 5-8 ft seas. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by moderate to fresh NE winds, except fresh to strong through Canary Islands passages, and 5-8 ft seas, 4-6 ft near and south of the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through tomorrow. Meanwhile, a cold front currently located just off the northeast Florida will reach from 31N73W to near Lake Okeechobee in Florida by Sun morning, then stall from near Bermuda to South Florida Mon and Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will move into the waters north of 29N late Tue and Wed. $$ Lewitsky