000 AXNT20 KNHC 061551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 18.3N 34.4W at 06/1500 UTC, or about 610 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving WNW at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh winds extend up to 600 nm north of the depression. Combined seas are peaking at 9 to 11 ft near and north of the center. Strong west-southwesterly shear is expected to increase further while the surrounding thermodynamic environment continues to dry out over the next couple days. Therefore, it is still anticipated that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low soon, and dissipate in a day or so. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://www.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details. Advisories have begun on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen which, as of 06/1500 UTC, was centered at 11.4N 67.0W, or about 130 nm ESE of Curacao. It is moving west at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean. Seas are peaking at 10-12 ft, on a building trend. The system does not appear to have a well-defined center and therefore cannot yet be designated as a tropical depression, however the risk of tropical storm force winds has increased for portions of the northern coast of South America, and advisories are being initiated as a potential tropical cyclone. Regardless of development, gusty winds to gale force and heavy rainfall with localized totals of 6-8 inches will cause flooding over northern portions of South America and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 15N25W. The ITCZ extends from 13N38W to 12N61W. Widely isolated moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N, between 42W and 62W. A portion of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean from 09N to 15N, between 70W and 84W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Overall, weak high pressure is creating favorable marine conditions in the Gulf. A stationary front extends through the Straits of Florida along 23N to the SE Gulf near 24N87W. North of this boundary, winds are moderate from the NE with 1-3 ft seas. South of the boundary, winds are gentle from the E with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through tonight. A cold front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, then stall. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near the north coast of Venezuela. Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds to the eastern Caribbean. These winds are currently generating 8-12 ft seas, on a building trend. Otherwise moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate the central and SW basin. Moderate NE winds and 2-4 ft seas dominate the NW basin. A surface trough in the Gulf of Honduras is supporting scattered moderate convection in the area. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen near 11.4N 67.0W, 1006 mb at 11 AM EDT, moving W at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. PTC Thirteen will move to 11.8N 69.0W this evening, 12.3N 71.9W Fri morning, 12.9N 74.9W Fri evening, 13.0N 78.0W Sat morning, 12.9N 80.6W Sat evening, and 12.8N 82.7W Sun morning. PTC Thirteen will move inland over 13.8N 86.8W by early Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between PTC Thirteen and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin. In the western Atlantic, a cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to a low pressure center near 26N74W. A stationary front continues from the low to the Florida Straits. Behind the front winds are gentle from the NW with 3-5 ft seas. Ahead of the front winds are moderate from the NE with 3-5 ft seas. East of 65W, winds shift to a moderate SE breeze with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas dominate. In the eastern Atlantic, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure associated with Tropical Depression Twelve and the monsoon trough is causing fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N65W to a 1014 mb low near 26N74W. The front becomes stationary from the low to the Straits of Florida. The whole frontal boundary is expected to become stationary by tonight, and dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting tonight as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them. $$ Flynn