000 AXNT20 KNHC 052107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Oct 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twelve... Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 16.3N 32.4W at 05/2100 UTC or 480 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Combined seas are in the 8-11 ft range near and north of the center. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is losing organization and now has an exposed low-level center displaced from the associated deep convection due to strong WSW shear. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the northeast quadrant. The current forecast indicates that the depression will become a remnant low in the next 24 hours, then dissipate Fri afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml for more details. Tropical Wave/Broad Low Pressure... A tropical wave crossed the Windward Islands this morning and is now in the far southeastern Caribbean along 63W from the coast of Venezuela to 18N. A broad 1006 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the wave north of the coast of Venezuela at 11.5N 62.8W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are observed north of the low, with seas of 8-10 ft. This system is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 55W and 68W. Although the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands and adjacent waters, satellite and radar imagery from Barbados show that it is not well organized. The system is forecast to move generally westward near the northern coast of South America, and interaction with land is likely to hinder significant development during the next day or so. After that time, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days when the system is over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall with localized flooding, as well as gusty winds to gale force, are expected over portions of the Windward Islands, northern portions of South America, and the ABC Islands during the next day or two. Interests in those locations, in addition to those in Central America, should continue to monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N28W, where the convergent flow is interrupted by Tropical Depression Twelve. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 08N58W. No significant convection is noted along or near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean and is triggering scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 120 nm from the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Overall, the Gulf of Mexico is under the influence of weak high pressure and favorable marine conditions. A NW-SE oriented surface trough extends from near Houston, Texas to the central Gulf of Mexico near 23N89W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm northeast of the trough. Northeast of this trough, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE-E with 2-3 ft seas. Southwest of the trough, winds are light to gentle from the NE-E with 1-2 ft seas. A weak cold front extends through the Straits of Florida to north of the Yucatan Channel, with scattered weak showers along and near portions of the boundary. For the forecast, the cold front will drift south through the end of the week, then stall and dissipate by late Sat. High pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight to moderate seas through Thu. Another cold front is expected to move into the coastal Gulf States on Fri, the central Gulf Sat and the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida Sun, then stall. Expect fresh northeast to east winds across the southeastern Gulf starting Fri and through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the fronts and lower pressure in the western Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the tropical wave and associated broad low pressure area located north of the coast of Venezuela in the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Outside of impacts from the tropical wave/broad low pressure, the pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over South America is supporting moderate easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough is analyzed along the coast from the Gulf of Honduras to Honduras and Nicaragua, with moderate winds north of the trough offshore Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted from 15N to 17N between 82W and 85W. For the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, other than the tropical wave/broad low pressure, gentle to moderate northeast winds slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Fri, except for winds increasing to moderate to fresh over most of the western Caribbean Fri through Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens between the low pressure area and strong high pressure north of the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Twelve in the eastern Atlantic Basin. A mostly dry cold front is analyzed from just west of Bermuda to 31N67W, across the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Behind the front winds are moderate from the north with 5-7 ft seas, some of which is swell from a mid-Atlantic storm. Ahead of the front and west of 65W, winds are light to gentle and variable, with 3-5 ft seas. East of 65W, moderate to fresh southerly winds are north of 27N and east of the front to 58W, along with 5-7 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, high pressure north of the area is the dominate feature with moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic is causing fresh to strong NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from near Bermuda to the southern Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Fri. The front will dissipate by late Sat. Another cold front will sweep southeastward reaching from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to vicinity South Florida and the Straits of Florida Sun and also stall. Expect for northeast winds to increase to fresh speeds over the southwest part of the area and Straits of Florida starting late Thu as the gradient tightens between the fronts and strong high pressure to the north of them. $$ Lewitsky