000 AXNT20 KNHC 040607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends southward from west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 18N28W through a 1008 mb low near 12N38W to 95N28W, and is moving northwestward near 10 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the low and Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 16N between 22W and 31W. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two. There is a high chance for development over the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 53W from 17N southward through a 1012 mb low near 11N53W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 51W and 56W. Slow development is possible during the next several days. It is expected to reach the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek, and the western Caribbean Sea over the weekend; and cause showery and gusty conditions. This system has a low chance of development over the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Senegal near Dakar through the low mentioned in the Special features section above to 07N38W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 140 nm south of the trough west of 31W. East of 25W, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident south of the trough from 03N to 13N, including the Guinea Bissau and Guinea coast. An ITCZ continues from 07N38W across 08N45W to 12N52W. Widely scattered showers are found up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front runs westward from Ceder Key, Florida to just southwest of Panama City, Florida. To the south, a surface trough extends westward from near Tampa, Florida to just south of New Orleans Louisiana. These features are triggering widely scattered showers over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Another surface trough across the Bay of Campeche is producing similar conditions there. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist in these areas. For the remainder of the Gulf, a 1020 mb high extending southward from eastern Texas is providing gentle to moderate NE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the surface trough across the east-central Gulf will sink southward across the southeastern Gulf through Tue evening. In response, the cold front currently over the northeastern Gulf should also shift southward, reaching southern Florida and the Keys on Fri. This will allow moderate to fresh NE to E winds to prevail over the northeastern Gulf. Then the high pressure over northern Florida will usher these winds farther southward over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida by early Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough curves northwestward from offshore of northwestern Colombia to a 1011 mb low just east of northern Nicaragua, then turns northeastward to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present from offshore of Honduras/Nicaragua northeastward across Jamaica to eastern Cuba, including the Windward Passage. Another surface trough is generating widely scattered showers at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are evident at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the 1011 mb low and its associated surface trough will change little through Wed, sustaining unstable weather in the area. Weak Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic through Thu before shifting northeastward. Then, the aforementioned tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles will bring showery and gusty conditions to the Windward Islands and eastern basin near midweek, then to the western basin over the weekend. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section on potential tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Basin. A surface trough curving southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N73W to central Florida, causing widely scattered showers north of 28N between 72W and the Georgia-Florida coast. A cold front extends southwestward from just west of Bermuda across 31N67W to the central Bahamas. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 50 nm along either side of the front. Convergent southerly winds to its east are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 30N between 60W and 67W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the basin. A 1022 mb high and its related ridge are supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 54W. To the west, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 54W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 8 ft exist from 09N to 21N/20N between the central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N65W to the southeastern Bahamas, and to eastern Cuba early on Tue. Meanwhile another cold front presently moving across the waters east-northeast of northern Florida will sink southward across the northwest part of the area. Fresh N winds will follow in behind this second front. These fronts will gradually merge from near 31N70W to 24N79W Wed morning, then move slowly southeastward across the central Bahamas through Fri. Fresh northerly winds will follow the merged front across the northwest waters through Tue night. Fresh NE winds will develop north of the weakening boundary Thu through Sat night, including the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida as the pressure gradient tightens between the front and high pressure that builds over the southeastern U.S. $$ Chan