000 AXNT20 KNHC 040005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Oct 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1008 mb low is analyzed near 11N28W along with numerous strong convection from 10N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 06N to 17N between 21W and 33W. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 52W with a 1012mb low pressure along the wave axis near 09N52W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 49W and 56W. Slow development is possible during the next several days while the wave moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and also through 5 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 11N27W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N between 32W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure centered near the Great Lakes extends a ridge southward to the Gulf, which is maintaining dry and stable conditions throughout the region, with the associated gradient allowing for gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and relatively low seas of 1-3 ft. There are two weak surface troughs, one across the NE basin and another in the SW gulf, however both lack any significant convection. For the forecast, a front over the southeastern U.S. will move southward across the eastern Gulf tonight through Tue night, followed by another area of relatively weak high pressure. This will allow for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to prevail mainly over the NE Gulf. High pressure will then remain centered just N of the area through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida starting early Fri as a tight gradient builds behind a cold front that will reach the vicinity of South Florida and the Florida Keys. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough persists over the west-central Caribbean, and extends from central Cuba SW to the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with it are affecting the offshore waters of Jamaica, NE Honduras and Nicaragua. Light to gentle winds along with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft are present over the western half of the basin, while gentle to moderate east to northeast trade wind and seas of 3-5 ft remain over the eastern Caribbean with locally fresh winds in the south-central region along the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. For the forecast, the surface trough will persist over the west- central Caribbean from offshore of NE Nicaragua to eastern Cuba along 77W through Wed. Weak Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic through Thu before retreating to the NE. A tropical wave currently along 52W will reach the Lesser Antilles Wed and move into the eastern Caribbean Wed night. Some improved organization of this wave is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin through late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features and Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A cold front extends from 31N66W SW to Andros Island. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas to 8 ft follow the front, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms ahead of the boundary all the way to 60W where winds are mainly variable, and light to gentle. Surface ridging dominates the remainder Atlantic subtropical waters, except for a low that weakens the ridge near 29N31W, however it lacks significant convection. Light to gentle winds are in the central and eastern subtropical waters with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 31N69W to central Cuba by late tonight as a reinforcing cold front moves into the northwest part of the area behind it. The fronts will gradually merge from near 31N70W to 24N79W Wed morning, then drift SE and across the central Bahamas through Fri. Fresh northerly winds will follow the second front across the NW waters tonight through Tue night. Fresh northeast winds will develop N of the weakening boundary Thu through Fri, across the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida. $$ Ramos