000 AXNT20 KNHC 030556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31W from west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N southward, and moving W slowly at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 11N between 28W and 32W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around midweek. There is a high chance of development for the next 2 to 5 days. A broad mid-Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 47W and 51W. Some gradual development is possible during the next few days and it should reach the Windward Islands and eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. There is a medium chance of development for the next 2 to 5 days. For the latest information on both tropical waves, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border across 10N26W to 07N36W. In addition to those near the tropical wave mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is present up to 180 nm along either side of the trough. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near the Guinea Bissau-Guinea coast. An ITCZ continues from 07N36W to 10N48W, then from 10N51W to near Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate convection is present up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough reaches eastward from the southwestern Gulf across the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are seen up to 70 nm along either side of this feature. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas exist across the southwestern, south-central and northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, winds across the northeastern Gulf are expected to become moderate to fresh later Mon morning. High pressure from the central U.S. continues to build southward toward the northern Gulf, causing a frontal trough currently over the southeastern U.S. to move southward and reaching the eastern Gulf Mon night through Tue night. Afterward, the high from behind will sustain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the northeastern Gulf. As the high weakens, these winds should decrease to between gentle and moderate Wed through Fri night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will develop over the southeastern Gulf starting Fri as a tight gradient builds behind a cold front that will move southward over southern Florida and the Keys. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs south-southwestward from central Cuba through a 1010 mb low just east of the Honduras-Nicaragua border to offshore of southern Nicaragua. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from the Nicaragua coast northeastward to eastern Cuba, including Jamaica and the Windward Passage. Locally moderate to fresh winds and higher seas are possible near heavier showers. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are present over the western basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough is forecast to persist in the general area through at least Wed. A tropical wave currently in the central Atlantic near 49W will reach the Windward Islands and eastern basin by midweek, bringing showery and gusty conditions along with locally higher seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin over the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low off the Mid-Atlantic coast across 31N72W to 28N74W, then continues as a stationary front across the northwest Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds east of this boundary are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 21N between 62W and the southwest Bahamas/73W. An upper-level trough runs northward from east of the Leeward Islands at 15N55W to a low near 23N54W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found from 14N to 19N between 56W and the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the low from 20N to 25N between 52W and 56W. Two surface troughs are causing widely scattered moderate convection at the central Atlantic north of 21N between 27W and 41W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The 1022 mb Bermuda High near 31N52W is supporting light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft north of 20N between 30W and 60W. To the west, Gentle to moderate southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen north of 20N between 60W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in northerly swell exist north of 20N between the NW African coast and 30W. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are evident from 10N to 20N between central African coast and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift eastward and become stationary from near 31N64W to 27N68W, over the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida Fri and Fri night. While the stationary front will gradually weaken and dissipate by Tue night. A stronger cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Mon and merge with the lingering stationary front on Tue. Fresh northerly winds will follow the second cold front through late Wed, reaching the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida on Thu. These conditions are expected to last into Fri night. $$ Chan