000 AXNT20 KNHC 022349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Oct 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 30W/31W, from 03N to 14N, moving W slowly at 5 kt. Scattered showers are from 04N to 13N between 22W and 38W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic. It has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance through the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. A tropical wave extends along 47W, from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 41W and 58W. Some gradual development of the wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. This disturbance has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and within the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Africa through the coast of Senegal near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 07N31W and 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 08N46W and then from 09N49W to 09N58W. For convection details, see the tropical waves section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A dry continental airmass continues to advance across the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining favorable marine conditions. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the week producing gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight seas. A cold front could briefly reach the NE waters tonight into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extending from eastern Cuba to a low in the Nicaragua offshore waters to the northern Panama offshore waters along with divergent flow aloft continue to support scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage, Jamaica adjacent waters and the SW Caribben W of 75W. Isolated showers are occuring in the SE basin. The Bermuda High against lower pressure associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough continue to support moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and SE basin where seas are in the 3-4 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are behind the surface trough mainly in the eastern Honduras and Nicaragua offshore waters. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 1-3 ft range are elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the west-central Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave is located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. It axis is now near 47W. Some gradual development of the wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 kt, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends east of Florida from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front from 61W to the central Bahamas. Also in the same region between the frontal boundary and a high pressure center located SE of Bermuda, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range are present. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds with locally moderate NE to E winds in the E and central basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will be reinforced by a cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida tonight. The merged frontal boundary will continue moving east across the western Atlantic reaching from 31N70W to the central Bahamas on Mon, and from 31N66W to the SE Bahamas on Tue. At the same time, another cold front will move off NE Florida Mon night into Tue followed by moderate to fresh winds and building seas. $$ Ramos