700 AXNT20 KNHC 012342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Oct 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N, between 16W and 29W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance over the next 5 days. For the latest information, please read the Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 14N, between 36W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 12N17W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 09N39W and then from 09N41W to 11N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 47W and 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico and the dry continental airmass over the region maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the next week producing gentle to locally moderate northerly winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from central Cuba SW to a 1008 mb low near 15N81W to the coastal waters of central Panama. This feature continues to drive the weather in the SW and central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms in those regions. This shower activity is being reinforced by middle and upper level divergent and diffluent flow. In terms of winds and seas, a weak pressure gradient in this region is providing mainly light to gentle variable winds with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Over the E Caribbean, the presence of the Bermuda High tighten the pressure gradient slightly, thus supporting slightly higher winds of gentle to moderate speeds with locally fresh trades in the far SE basin. For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to persist over the western Caribbean through at least Tue. A tropical wave, currently located along 42W/43W should reach 55W/56W by Tue bringing some increase in winds and seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 36.8N 78.8W at 01/2100 UTC or 80 nm WSW of Richmond Virginia moving ENE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas subsided to just less than 8 ft in the SW N Atlantic waters just E of the Bahamas to 60W. A stationary front extends from 31N75W SW to Andros Island and central Cuba. To the east of the front to 60W, moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail with seas between 5 to 7 ft. West of the frontal boundary and along the Florida seaboard winds are gentle to locally moderate with seas in the 2-4 ft range. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores and Bermuda Highs, which are supporting light to gentle variable winds, except E of 26W where NE moderate to fresh winds are present with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front should be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas by early Mon morning, and extend from 31N66W to the central Bahamas by early Tue morning. $$ Ramos