000 AXNT20 KNHC 010417 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Oct 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is centered near 35.3N 79.5W at 01/0300 UTC or 50 nm SSE of Greensboro, NC moving N at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft with mixed swell to 12 ft still affecting the SW N Atlantic waters N of 29N between 71W and 80W and 8 ft swell reaching as far south as 25N. Ian is forecast to move north through central North Carolina tonight and into Virginia tomorrow morning while gradually losing intensity. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 02N to 17N, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N, between 18W and 27W. This wave has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours and a high chance over the next 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N, between 35W and 43W. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate to fresh winds shifting from E to NE across the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N27W. The ITCZ continues from 10N27W to 10N36W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave from 10N41W to 12N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 12N, between 28W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between high pressure in the western Gulf and generally lower pressure in the western Atlantic in the wake of Ian is supporting moderate northerly flow across the basin with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, a stationary front prevails east of Florida. Cool, dry conditions are accompanying the gentle to moderate N winds across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Winds should remain tranquil for the next several days over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from 20N79W to 13N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with this feature are observed from 12N to 20N, between 72W and 83W, including the Windward Passage. Similar convection is noted east of 68W in the eastern Caribbean. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are gentle to moderate across the basin with slight seas. 2-4 ft northerly swell is gradually abating tonight in the far NW basin. For the forecast, a surface trough should persist over the NW Caribbean through Mon. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected west of the trough through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE trades and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For details on Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian and impacted waters please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above. A stationary front extends from 31N75W to the coast of Cuba near 22N79W as a dissipating boundary. North of 29N and west of this boundary, winds are fresh to strong from the NW, W and SW. North of 25N and east of the boundary, winds are also fresh to strong, but from the SE. 6-10 ft swell from Ian currently extends east to 70W and is propagating farther across the western Atlantic. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass revealed an area of strong to near gale force winds near the southern coast of Morocco, where seas are 8-12 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian near 35.3N 79.5W 994 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Ian will become extratropical and move to 36.6N 79.6W Sat morning, 38.0N 79.2W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. An early season cold front has become stationary east of Florida in the wake of Ian. This front should weaken on Sat, but be reinforced by another cold front moving off of the coast of NE Florida on Sun. The combined cold front should reach from near 31N70W to 25N75W by Mon morning and dissipate by Tue. $$ Flynn