000 AXNT20 KNHC 300002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ian is centered near 29.3N 79.9W at 29/2100 UTC or 210 nm S of Charleston South Carolina moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend 360 nm from the center. Peak seas over Atlantic offshore waters north of the northern Bahamas are 25 ft. Numerous moderate convection is N of 30N between 76W and 82W. A outer rainband covers the offshore waters between 72W and 79W, including the central Bahamas to central Cuba. On the forecast track, Ian will approach the coast of South Carolina on Friday. The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas Friday night and Saturday. Ian could slightly strengthen before landfall tomorrow, and is forecast to rapidly weaken over the southeastern United States late Friday into Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven is centered near 19.1N 38.1W at 29/2100 UTC or 830 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NE quadrant from 20N to 23N between 34W and 38W. A general northwestward motion is expected until the remnant low dissipates within the next day or so. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 32W, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast W Africa near 16N16W to 15N20W to 08N28W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 09N50W to 12N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 02N-15N between 13W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... Even though Hurricane Ian is centered over the NE Florida offshore waters, fresh to strong northerly winds from its outer wind circulation continue to affect the entire basin, being the strongest winds in the NE gulf and offshore waters of Veracruz, Mexico. These winds are also being enhanced by a surface ridge building across the western basin in the wake of the hurricane. Seas range between 5 to 8 ft with the highest seas S of 28N. For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to gradually diminish over the Gulf region over the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the NE Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level diffluent flow to the east of a middle to upper level low located between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico continue to support a broad area of showers and tstms across the Lesser Antilles and the E Caribbean. The other areas with similar convection is Jamaica adjacent waters and the lee of central and southern Cuba due to the outer rainbands of Hurricane Ian centered over the NE Florida offshore waters. In terms of winds and seas, light to gentle winds dominate the region, except for the NW Caribbean offshore waters where moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas to 7 ft in northerly swell prevail in the wake of Hurricane Ian. For the forecast, large N well produced earlier this week from Ian will continue to spread through the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A surface trough is forecast to persist over the NW Caribbean through at least Sun. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected W of the trough through Fri night. Elsewhere gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... For details on Tropical Storm Ian, centered offshore NE Florida, and T.D. Eleven please read the Special Features section above. Aside from Hurricane Ian affecting the SW N Atlantic waters N of the northern Bahamas, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting the offshore waters of the central and southern Bahamas. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High ridge, which is supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds in the central subtropical waters and fresh to locally strong NE winds between the coast of W Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian near 29.3N 79.9W 986 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Ian will move to 30.5N 79.4W Fri morning, 32.8N 79.6W Fri afternoon, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 35.0N 80.4W Sat morning, 36.5N 81.0W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Sun. $$ Ramos