632 AXNT20 KNHC 290433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ian is centered over central Florida near 27.5N 81.4W at 29/0300 UTC or 70 nm SW of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ian is moving NNE at 7 kt. Minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian is losing intensity due to land interaction, wind shear and dry air, and is now a category 1 hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 40 nm from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend up to 150 nm from the center. The peak seas are near 24 ft. While the strongest convection remains over land, a band of thunderstorms has developed east of Ian over the western Atlantic, from 31N78W to 21N77W. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida this morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by mid-day Thursday. Ian is then forecast to turn northward and make a second landfall in South Carolina or Georgia as a strong tropical storm on Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven center located near 17.2N 35.6W at 29/0300 UTC, or 670 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the depression from 17N to 20N, between 33W and 36W. A general north to north- west motion is expected over the next couple days before the system dissipates by Friday or Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis extends along 27W from 09N to 21N, moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N46W to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues from 10N45W to 12N59W. Scattered moderate convection is currently observed from 07N to 15N, within 300 nm of the African coast, and slowly drifting west. Convection is limited across the remainder of the monsoon trough/ITCZ boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... Northerly flow west of Hurricane Ian is dominating the basin. Winds are strong to near gale force in the northeast Gulf and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Buoys are reporting significant wave heights of 12 to 15 ft across the east-central Gulf. Seas are generally 8 to 12 ft elsewhere. These conditions will gradually begin to abate Thursday. For the forecast Hurricane Ian is now a Category One hurricane near 27.5N 81.4W with 972 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.4N 80.9W Thu morning then be near 29.6N 80.3W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Ian will be in the Atlantic near 31.3N 80.1W Fri morning, then move inland to 33.1N 80.5W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.0N 81.2W Sat morning. Ian will become extratropical and move into the Central Appalachians Sat evening. Ian will dissipate late Sun. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night into Fri night, with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... 6 to 10 ft northerly swell from Hurricane Ian is propagating through the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate across the basin with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast Hurricane Ian, well N of the area, is producing large N swell in the Yucatan Peninsula. This swell will persist into Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features Section above for more information on Hurricane Ian and Tropical Depression Eleven. The pattern in the western Atlantic is dominated by Hurricane Ian, which is currently inland over Florida and moving NNE. Tropical storm force winds have reached the Atlantic coast with a recent scatterometer pass confirming they extend from West Palm Beach, FL to South Carolina. Buoys in this area are reporting 10-12 ft seas on a building trend. Fresh to strong winds extend as far east as 70W. An outer rainband from Ian stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N78W to 21N77W. An upper-level low centered near 21N62W with an associated surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 19N to 26N, between 60W and 67W. Outside of the impacts from Hurricane Ian and Tropical Depression Eleven, winds are mainly moderate across the basin with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Ian is now a Category One hurricane near 27.5N 81.4W with 972 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Ian will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.4N 80.9W Thu morning then be near 29.6N 80.3W Thu evening. Tropical Storm Ian will be in the Atlantic near 31.3N 80.1W Fri morning, then move inland to 33.1N 80.5W Fri evening, and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.0N 81.2W Sat morning. Ian will become extratropical and move into the Central Appalachians Sat evening. Ian will dissipate late Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist through late Fri. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the region Sat into Sun. $$ Flynn