938 AXNT20 KNHC 280619 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Major Hurricane Ian, at 28/0600 UTC, is near 25.2N 83.0W. Ian also is about 155 km/84 nm to the SW of Naples in Florida. Ian is moving NNE, or 015 degrees, 09 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Hurricane force wind speeds are within 35 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 35 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 20 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 100 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 30 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 20N to 30N between 79W and 92W. Precipitation: numerous strong covers the areas that are from NW Cuba at 22N to Florida at 27N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the Atlantic Ocean and in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea, from 19N northward between 75W and the eastern coast of Florida. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 77W westward. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N34W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 14N to 18N between 31W and 37W. Only a slight increase in organization will result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression today, although the environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development. More development will become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper level winds. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the next day or so, and turn north-northwestward by Thursday. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 20N from 25W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Mauritania and Senegal, to 14N20W 08N24W and 09N30W, and from 12N37W to 10N47W. The monsoon trough is broken up by the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N34W. The ITCZ is along 10N47W 12N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Major Hurricane Ian, that is moving through the SE Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through 31N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 29N82W in Florida, to 27N90W, to the coastal border of Texas and Mexico. Strong wind speeds or faster are from 90W eastward. Mainly moderate N winds are in the southwestern Gulf, except for fresh to strong along the coast near Veracruz in Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the western and southwestern sections. The exception is for the range from 6 feet to 8 feet offshore Veracruz. Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern Appalachians late Sat.. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the Gulf starting Thu night as Ian continues to move northeast of the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Major Hurricane Ian, that currently is moving through the SE Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow passes through the area from Puerto Rico to Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the remainder of the SE Caribbean Sea. It is assumed that strong to tropical storm force winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet, may be occurring in the Caribbean Sea waters of western Cuba to the north of 20N. Moderate E trade winds prevail are in the eastern and central sections from 74W eastward. Gentle winds are in the SW Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 77W eastward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia, beyond southern Nicaragua, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong is in parts of Colombia and Venezuela and the coastal waters from 06N to 13N between 69W and 76W. Broad and weak upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the vicinity in Colombia and Venezuela. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward, in the SW corner of the area. Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern Appalachians late Sat. Strong winds and rough seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean tonight as Ian continues to move north and away from the region, although large N swell will persist in the Yucatan Channel through late Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Major Hurricane Ian, and for information about the 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N34W. One surface trough is along 30N27W 23N29W 19N32W. A second surface trough is along 31N47W 26N45W 19N44W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N61W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 24N between 58W and 63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 18N to 27N between 52W and 64W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 26N northward between 20W and 53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 17W and 52W. Moderate E winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 15N to 31N between 35W and 70W. Strong NE to E winds are from 25N northward between 20W and 29W. Major Hurricane Ian is near 24.9N 82.9W with 952 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Ian will move to 26.0N 82.5W Wed morning, then inland to 27.2N 81.9W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical storm inland near 28.2N 81.4W Thu morning. Tropical Storm Ian will reach 29.3N 80.8W Thu evening, 30.6N 80.8W Fri morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 32.7N 81.2W Fri evening. Tropical Depression Ian will be over the southern Appalachians late Sat. Expect deteriorating marine conditions off northeast Florida starting tonight, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible into Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist. $$ mt/sk