000 AXNT20 KNHC 272346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Sep 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Ian is centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 24N 83.2W at 2100 UTC, or 43 nm SSW of the Dry Tortugas, FL, moving N at 9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. San Juan y Martinez, Cuba recorded a peak wind gust of 112 kt when Ian passed over Cuba earlier this morning. The same station measured 7.95 inches of rain during the 24 hr period ending at 27/1200 UTC today. The city of Pinar del Rio experienced the calm eye of Hurricane Ian, which lasted for 1 hr 30 min. Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward 120 nm from the center. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring over the Yucatan Channel, western Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, in the area from 22N to 26N between 81W and 86W. Peak seas are estimated at 30 ft just to the east of the eye. Satan Shoal buoy, located just to the SW of Key West, has been reporting seas of 15 ft in SE waves during the past few hours. Numerous strong convection is seen within 90 nm of the center in the SW semicircle and 120 nm NE semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere within 270 nm NE quadrant, 360 nm SE quadrant, and 120 nm W semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 510 nm NE quadrant, 300 nm SE quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys this evening and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wed and Wed night. Strengthening is expected tonight through Wed morning. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure located near 14.5N34.5W is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection mainly in its NE quadrant from 14.5N to 17N between 31.5W-35W. The disturbance has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the next day or so and then turn north-northwestward by Thu. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 22W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis from 13.5N to 18N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania near 17N16W to 08N26W and 09N30W. The monsoon trough resumes from the 1008 mb low near 14.5N34.5W to 10N45W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N45W to 12.5N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the African coast between 08W and 16W, and from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection dots the tropical Atlantic and E Caribbean from 09N-17N between 52W-63W. GULF OF MEXICO... Major Hurricane Ian has emerged north of western Cuba and is moving across the Straits of Florida and toward the southwest coastal waters of Florida. Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian. Strong winds and seas exceeding 8 ft associated with Ian are located south of 27N and east of 89W. A cold front extends from near Cedar Key, FL near 29N82.5W to near Brownsville, TX where it becomes stationary. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of the front and merge across the NE Gulf with strong winds extending over 300 nmto the NW of Ian. Seas are 5-9 ft across the area. Mainly moderate N winds prevail over the southwestern Gulf, except fresh to strong along the coast near Veracruz. Seas are 3-6 ft across the W and SW Gulf, except for offshore Veracruz, where 6-8 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western Gulf from 19N-26N between 93W-98W. Major Hurricane Ian will move across the southeast Gulf tonight, passing W of the lower Florida Keys during the next few hours. Ian is expected to strengthen further overnight, and will reach near 25.3N 82.9W around midnight, reach near 26.6N 82.5W midday Wed, enter the Florida west coast Wed evening, reaching near 27.6N 82W around midnight Wed, then continue moving slowly NNE across the state Thu through Thu evening, reaching the NE Florida coast early Fri morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the basin Fri through Sat as Ian continues to move northeast of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Narrow lines and bands of moderate to strong convection extend well south of Ian and across the NW Caribbean from 17.5N northward and east of 79W to the Yucatan coast. Scattered clusters of moderate to strong convection prevail across the SW Caribbean from 10N to 16N between 78W and 82W. As of 2100 UTC, strong to tropical storm force winds are assume to still be occurring across the Caribbean waters of western Cuba to the north of 20N. Seas of 7-10 ft persist across these near shore waters. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough extends over the eastern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to NW Venezuela. The upper-trough is inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection to its east, from 12N-18N between 61W-72W, including over St. Lucia and Martinique. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection described above. Outside of Ian's circulation, moderate E trade winds prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean E of 74W. Gentle winds are across the SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail east of 77W. Major Hurricane Ian is moving into the southeast Gulf of Mexico, and will gradually exit the NW Caribbean completly tonight. Strong winds and rough seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean tonight as Ian continues moving away from the region, although large N swell will persist in the Yucatan Channel through late Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Ian are affecting waters to the west of 76W. The strongest of this convection extends from the northwest Bahamas to southeast Florida to the N central coast of Cuba along 78W. Sustained wnds of 25 kt and greater associated with Ian are currently spreasing from the Straits of Florida into far southeast Florida. For more details on Major Hurricane Ian, please see the Special Features section above. Elsewhere, an upper-level low located near 24N58W is inducing a few thunderstorms near it. Moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the Atlantic from 15N-31N between 35W-70W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N26W is the remnant of Tropical Storm Hermine. A surface trough running NE-SW goes through the low from 27N23W to 21N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N-31N between 20W-28W. A morning ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds on the north side of this low from 25N-31N between 20W-29W. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Ian will move across the southeast Gulf through Wed before moving inland and weakening to tropical storm over Florida near 28.5N 81.5W Thu afternoon. Ian will continue inland to 29.4N 81.2W Fri morning, and 31.0N 81.1W Fri afternoon, before moving north of area through Sat. The wind field asociated with Ian will expand as it moves across Florida Wed night through Thu night, and extend into the Atlantic coastal waters from SE Florida to the NE coasts. Strong SE winds will extend eastward across the Atlantic to 77W during this time. Expect deteriorating marine conditions off northeast Florida starting Wed, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible through Fri night. $$ Stripling