252 AXNT20 KNHC 271759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Ian is centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 23.5N 83.3W at 27/1800 UTC, or 75 nm SSW of the Dry Tortugas, FL, moving N at 9 kt. Minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. San Juan y Martinez, Cuba recorded a peak wind gust of 112 kt when Ian passed over Cuba earlier this morning. The same station measured 7.95 inches of rain during the 24 hr period ending at 27/1200 UTC. The city of Pinar del Rio experienced the calm eye of Hurricane Ian. The calm lasted for 1 hr 30 min. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 120 nm from the center. Seas of 12 ft or greater are occurring over the far NW Caribbean, western Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf of Mexico, in the area from 20.5N to 25N between 81W and 86W. Peak seas are reaching 25 ft. Numerous strong convection is seen within 75 nm of the center in the S semicircle and 60 nm N semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted elsewhere within 360 nm NE quadrant, 210 nm SE quadrant, and 90 nm W semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 510 nm NE quadrant, 300 nm SE quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass west of the Florida Keys later today and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wed and Wed night. Strengthening is expected later today through Wed. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure located near 14N35W is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection mainly in its NE quadrant from 13.5N to 16N between 32W-35W. The disturbance has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the next day or so and then turn north-northwestward by early Thu. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave axis is along 21W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the wave axis from 12N to 16.5N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania near 17N16W to 08N24W and 09N30W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N37W to 10N45W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N45W to 10N50W to 12N58W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted S of the monsoon through from 02.5N to 08N between 16W and 34W. Similar convection is seen from 08N-15N between 57.5W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... Major Hurricane Ian has emerged north of western Cuba. Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian. Strong winds and seas exceeding 8 ft associated with Ian are located south of 27N and east of 89W. A cold front extends from Cedar Key, FL near 29N83W to just north of Brownsville, TX near 26N98W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring N of the front with 5-6 ft seas. Mainly moderate N winds prevail over the southwestern Gulf, where seas are 3-5 ft, except for offshore Veracruz, where fresh NW winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western Gulf from 19N-27N between 93W-98W. Major Hurricane Ian moved off the northwest Cuba coast a few hours ago and into the southeast Gulf. Ian will move to 24.4N 83.4W this evening, 26.0N 83.0W Wed morning, 27.1N 82.5W Wed evening, then move inland over west-central Florida to near 27.8N 82.1W Thu morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the basin Fri and Sat as Ian continues to move northeast of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 27/1500 UTC, convection, winds over 20 kt, and seas over 8 ft associated with Hurricane Ian are occurring over the NW Caribbean Sea, mainly north of 19N and west of 76W. See the Special Features section above for more details on Hurricane Ian. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough extends over the eastern Caribbean from Puerto Rico to NW Venezuela. The upper-trough is inducing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection to its east, from 12N-18N between 61W-72W, including over St. Lucia and Martinique. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection mainly south of 13.5N and west of 75.5W, including coastal areas near the border of Panama and Costa Rica. Outside of Ian's circulation, moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle winds are across the SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-5 ft prevail east of 77W. Major Hurricane Ian moved off the northwest Cuba coast a few hours ago and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds over the far northwest Caribbean off Cuba will diminish by mid- afternoon as Ian continues to move north of the area, but rough seas will persist into the overnight hours. Rough seas will also continue in the Yucatan Channel through late Fri due to northerly swell from Ian. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Ian are affecting waters to the west of 74W. The strongest of this convection extends from the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, including over South Florida. Winds over 25 kt associated with Ian are currently confined to the Straits of Florida, to the west of 79W. For more details on Major Hurricane Ian, please see the Special Features section above. Elsewhere, an upper-level low located near 24N58W is inducing a few thunderstorms near it. Moderate E winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the Atlantic from 15N-31N between 35W-70W. Farther east, a 1013 mb low pressure near 24N25W is the remnant of Tropical Storm Hermine. A surface trough running NE-SW goes through the low from 27N23W to 21N28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N-30N between 20W-28W. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong NE to E winds on the north side of this low from 25N-31N between 20W-29W. A 27/1000 UTC altimeter pass measured seas of 10 to 11 ft in this area. For the forecast west of 55W, Major Hurricane Ian moved off the northwest Cuba coast a few hours ago and into the southeast Gulf. Ian will move to near 26N83W Wed morning, 27.1N 82.5W Wed evening, then move inland over west-central Florida to near 27.8N 82.1W Thu morning. Expect deteriorating marine conditions off northeast Florida starting Wed, with tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible through Fri night. Elsewhere moderate to fresh E to SE winds will persist. $$ Hagen