000 AXNT20 KNHC 270611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Ian, at 27/0600 UTC, is near 21.7N 83.6W. Ian also is about 80 km/43 nm to the S of Pinar del Rio in Cuba, and about 135 km/73 nm to the E of the NW tip of Cuba. Ian is moving NNW, or 345 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Hurricane force wind speeds are within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 25 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 75 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 31 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 18N to 24N between 79W and 87W. Precipitation: Upper level anticyclonic outflow from Ian covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N southward from 87W eastward, in the Gulf of Mexico. Numerous strong is within a 90 nm radius of the center of Ian. Numerous strong covers the Bahamas from 23N northward. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 24N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N from 70W westward in the Caribbean Sea. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 14N35W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 16N between 30W and 41W. Fresh to strong winds are within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Moderate to fresh winds are within 440 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 165 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The environmental conditions are expected to be sufficiently conducive for the system to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. More development will become less likely by the end of the week, due to strong upper level winds. The disturbance is forecast to meander for the next day or two, and turn north-northwestward by early Thursday. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 100 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW corner of Mauritania, to 08N24W and 08N29W. The monsoon trough is broken up by the 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 14N35W. The ITCZ is along 09N43W 09N47W, 13N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ. Other rainshowers are possible, from 20N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Ian. The forecast is for Ian to impact the east central Gulf of Mexico, starting early this morning. Upper level anticyclonic outflow from Ian covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N southward from 87W eastward. A stationary front is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters from the Florida Big Bend to the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either side of the stationary front. The GFS model for 250 mb shows anticyclonic wind flow in the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows a weak inverted trough in the same area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N southward from 90W westward. A middle level to upper level trough is in the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 91W westward. Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the northern one-fifth of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico consists of weak and comparatively lower surface pressures. A surface trough is along 24N83W, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to 30N77W in the Atlantic Ocean. The surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat and weak. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 92W eastward...about 700 nm to the northwest of T.S. Ian. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner, and they range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere, away from Ian. Hurricane Ian still is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights will increase more and more, once Ian enters the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 12 hours or so. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Louisiana coastal waters/ offshore waters, near the stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning, 24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening, move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N 82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Expect hazardous conditions in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida spreading north and northwestward across the E and central Gulf through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Tropical Storm Ian, that currently is moving through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow passes through the area from Puerto Rico to NW coastal Venezuela. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is near the SE Caribbean Sea islands from 12N to 15N between 59W and 64W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from Hispaniola eastward. A weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, in the central and eastern sections. Light to gentle southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from northern Colombia, beyond northern Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: moderate to strong, in clusters is in Colombia and its coastal waters. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 75W westward. Scattered to numerous strong is in northern Nicaragua and in eastern Honduras from 13N to 16N between 83W and 86W. This precipitation is between the monsoon trough and Hurricane Ian. Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning, 24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening, move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N 82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Hurricane Ian, and for information about the 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 14N35W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A surface trough is just to the west of the Canary Islands, from 29N22W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center, the remnants of Hermine, near 24N22W, to 20N29W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 40W eastward. Strong to near-gale force NE winds are from 210 nm to 510 nm of the 1009 mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 26N northward from 20W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 16N northward between 50W and 65W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N57W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitaiton, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 74W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are between 40W and 70W. Moderate wind speeds or slower are from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward. Gentle wind speeds or slowers are from 03N to 23N from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 25N northward between 20W and 40W, to the north of the surface trough and the 1009 mb low pressure center. The sea heights range are 6 feet or higher, elsewhere from 14N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. Category Two Hurricane Ian is near 21.3N 83.4W with 962 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Ian will move to 22.8N 83.7W Tue morning, 24.5N 83.7W Tue evening, and 26.1N 83.5W Wed morning. Ian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane near 27.2N 83.1W Wed evening, move inland to 27.9N 82.7W Thu morning, then inland to 28.6N 82.4W Thu evening. Ian will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over Georgia late Fri. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the Atlc waters W of 76W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue night through Fri night. Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE Florida coastal waters Wed night through Fri evening. $$ mt/sk