000 AXNT20 KNHC 262259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... IAN Hurricane Ian is centered near 20.3N 83.2W at 26/2100 UTC or 130 nm SE of the western tip of Cuba, moving NNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Maximum seas with this system are expected to reach 27 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 17N-28N between 76W-87W. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. CENTRAL ATLANTIC LOW An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 14N36W, continues to produce scattered moderate convection from 12N to 16N and between 33W and 39W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are 8-9 ft. Despite the proximity of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the end of this week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for development as the system begins to move slowly north-northwestward. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No tropical waves are present at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 17N17W to 10N22W to 14N30W. The ITCZ extends from 11N45W to 13N60W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 16N and W of 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details regarding Hurricane Ian. A surface trough is analyzed near the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Scattered showers are noted near the trough axis. To the east, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters related to Hurricane Ian. Surface and satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate or weaker winds prevail across the Gulf, except for fresh to strong NW winds in the far W Gulf and fresh to strong NE winds the far SE Gulf. Seas across the basin are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near 23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, reach near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night, near 28.1N 82.9W Thu afternoon, then continue moving NNE and inland across N Florida Thu night to early Fri morning. Expect hazardous conditions in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida beginning before midnight tonight, then spreading north and northwestward across the E and central Gulf Tue through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Ian, fairly tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near 23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, then veer NNE across the E Gulf of Mexico, reaching near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night and inland across N Florida Thu night to early Fri morning. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Ian and on an area of low pressure well west of the Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical depression this week. A surface trough near South Florida and divergence aloft result in scattered to numerous moderate convection affecting the western Atlantic mainly W of 73W. showers near the NW Bahamas and off SE Florida. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N61W to 30N66W. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail W of 60W. In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a large swell region is producing seas of 8-10 ft N of 20N and between 35W and 60W. Winds in these waters are mainly moderate to locally fresh. Meanwhile, the remnants of Hermine are located near 25N22W and a surface trough extends from the low pressure to 20N26W. The pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of Azores and lower pressures associated with the remnants of Hermine and NW Africa result in fresh to strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. In these waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 24 hours. Ian will move to near 21.7N 83.8W tonight as a major hurricane, cross western Cuba and reach near 23.6N 84W Tue afternoon, reach near 25.3N 83.9W Tue night, reach near 27.5N 83.2W Wed night, near 28.1N 82.9W Thu afternoon, then continue moving NNE and inland across N Florida Thu night to early Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the Atlc waters W of 76W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night. Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE Florida coastal waters early Thu through Fri evening. $$ ERA