000 AXNT20 KNHC 260630 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Ian, at 26/0600 UTC, is near 17.7N 81.7W. Ian also is about 185 km/100 nm to the SSW of Grand Cayman, and about 575 km/310 nm to the SE of the NW tip of Cuba. Ian is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within 45 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, within 30 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and within 30 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. The wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 33 knots, and the sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, from 15N to 19N between 77W and 83W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 300 nm of the center, mostly in the S semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details. The center of Post-Tropical Storm Gaston, at 26/0300 UTC, is near 38.6N 38.2W. Gaston is moving WSW, or 245 degrees, 08 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: no organized deep convective precipitation is present. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the Forecast/ Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, and the High Seas Forecast at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php, for more details. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 15N36W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 16N between 33W and 40W. The precipitation pattern is persistent but disorganized. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development. It is possible that a tropical depression may form during the next few days, before upper level winds become less favorable toward the end of the week. The system is expected to meander during the next day or two, and then move slowly north-northwestward. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... No tropical waves are being analyzed at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N21W 09N24W 10N31W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 15N36W, to 07N41W. The ITCZ continues from 07N41W, to 09N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 16N between 33W and 40W, around the 1009 mb low pressure center. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more details about the 1009 mb low pressure center. Other precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area near the monsoon trough/ITCZ, from 18N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Ian. The forecast is for Ian to impact the east central Gulf of Mexico, starting late on Monday/early on Tuesday. A middle level to upper level trough is in the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 91W westward. Weak surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the northern one-fifth of the Gulf of Mexico. The rest of the Gulf of Mexico consists of weak and comparatively lower surface pressures. A surface trough is along 24N83W, to Lake Okeechobee in South Florida, to 30N77W in the Atlantic Ocean. The surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat and weak. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 27N southward from 92W eastward...about 700 nm to the northwest of T.S. Ian. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the area. Tropical Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W Mon morning and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will be near 22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening, and 26.2N 83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about Tropical Storm Ian, that currently is moving through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds are from Hispaniola eastward. Gentle wind speeds or slower are from 250 nm and more, away from Ian, southward, to Colombia, Panama, and Central America. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet, mostly, to the east and to the south of Ian. The monsoon trough is along 09N76W in Colombia, through the border of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and beyond western Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Tropical Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W Mon morning and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will be near 22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening, and 26.2N 83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through the northeast Gulf of Mexico late Thu. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas subside gradually, as Ian moves N of the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about T.S. Ian and T.S. Gaston. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N58W 27N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the frontal boundary. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N55W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward between 44W and 60W. An upper level trough is digging into the area that is from 20N between 27W and 42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 25W and 44W. Some sea heights that range from 7 feet to 8 feet are from 28N northward from 20W eastward. Sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet are to the north of the line 31N38W 27N44W 22N52W 31N60W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong winds are within 380 nm to the north of the remnant low pressure center of Hermine that is near 24N19W, in the N quadrant. The wind speeds are mostly moderate, to some fresh, from 12N northward, and from the line 10N54W 05N38W southward. Gentle wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Northerly swell will decay to less than 8 feet tonight. Tropical Storm Ian is near 17.3N 81.4W 989 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Ian will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 82.3W Mon morning and move to 20.8N 83.5W Mon evening. Hurricane Ian will be near 22.7N 84.0W Tue morning, 24.7N 84.1W Tue evening, and 26.2N 83.8W Wed morning. Hurricane Ian likely will be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane near 27.6N 83.5W Wed evening. Ian will change little in intensity as it moves through the northeast Gulf of Mexico late Thu. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 75W as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon into Fri night. $$ mt/sk