000 AXNT20 KNHC 232323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... FIONA Hurricane Fiona is centered near 39.6N 61.0W at 23/2100 UTC or 320 nm SSE of Halifax Nova Scotia moving NNE at 35 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. seas are peaking to 20 ft with this system. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona will approach Nova Scotia later this evening, move across Nova Scotia and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday, and then across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea by late Sunday. Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the eastern United States coast, and Bermuda. These swells will reach Atlantic Canada this evening. The swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. GASTON Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.6N 28.7W at 23/2100 UTC or 60 nm N of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving S at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores through early Saturday. Swells generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at website https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. HERMINE Tropical Storm Hermine is centered near 18.6N 20.5W at 23/2100 UTC or 250 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is possible through tomorrow, with weakening expected on Sunday, and Hermine could become a remnant low on Monday. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 22N between 17N-22N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather/gmdss.org/ll.html and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. T.D. NINE Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 14.7N 71.3W at 23/2100 UTC or 370 nm ESE of Kingston Jamaica moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking to 9 ft at this time with this system. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 71W and 79W. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica on Saturday night and Sunday, and approach the Cayman Islands on Sunday night and early Monday. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. More significant intensification is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane by early Monday. Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the newly formed Tropical Depression Ten located over the far eastern Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N23W to 08N43W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N14N between 30W and 41W, and from 09N to 14N between 42W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the NE gulf from 28N83W to 29N90W. Scattered showers are noted with the part of the front that extends across the Florida peninsula. The pressure gradient across the area supports gentle to moderate winds throughout the basin, with low seas of 1-3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west across the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, T.D. Nine is near 14.7N 71.3W 1006 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.8N 73.1W Sat morning, move to 15.0N 75.4W Sat afternoon, 15.6N 77.6W Sun morning, 16.8N 79.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.8N 81.2W Mon morning, and 20.7N 82.3W Mon afternoon. Nine will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.4N 83.2W Tue afternoon. Conditions will likely begin to deteriorate across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early next week. In the meantime, the cold front will continue to drift southward before stalling across the east-central Gulf through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds can be expected near the front with light to gentle winds elsewhere. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for details about T.D. Nine. The eastern section of the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection over Central America. Some of this activity is also affecting the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail across the western and central Caribbean, west of 72W. Seas in this area are 1-2 ft. Fresh to near-gale force winds and seas of 5-10 ft prevail over the eastern Caribbean in association with the T.D. For the forecast, T.D. Nine is near 14.7N 71.3W 1006 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.8N 73.1W Sat morning, move to 15.0N 75.4W Sat afternoon, 15.6N 77.6W Sun morning, 16.8N 79.7W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 18.8N 81.2W Mon morning, and 20.7N 82.3W Mon afternoon. Nine will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.4N 83.2W Tue afternoon. Deteriorating marine conditions can be expected near the track of Nine, including the central Caribbean tonight through early Sun, and portions of the northwest Caribbean later on Sun through Tue. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Jamaica and the Cayman Islands this weekend, in addition to portions of Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Fiona, T.S. Gaston, and T.S. Hermine over the far eastern Atlantic. Outside the special features, a cold front has entered the area from near 31N69W to 28N80W. Fresh northeast winds and seas of 8-10 ft are behind the front. Isolated showers are near the front north of 28N. Surface high pressure ridging prevails across most of the basin, north of 20N and east of 60W, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered just north of the area near 33N41W. Moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail across the central Atlantic between 40W-60W. MOderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern Atlantic outside of T.S. Hermine. For the forecast W of 55W, Hurricane Fiona will become extratropical and move to 44.0N 60.6W Sat morning. Swells generated by Fiona are currently reaching as far south as 23N and as far east as 56W. As Fiona continues to move farther away from the forecast waters, swell from this system will gradually move eastward and subside. By Mon morning, conditions should improve. Impacts from T.D. Nine, currently in the E Caribbean, may affect areas offshore Florida early next week. $$ ERA