000 AXNT20 KNHC 140403 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 04N to 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 15N, between 25W and 30W. While a recent scatterometer pass found some broad circulation near 12N27W, environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable and tropical cyclone development is no longer anticipated. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 04N to 21N, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure center is analyzed near 15N47W along this wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 20N, between 41W and 52W. Numerous moderate with scattered strong convection is occurring within this area from 14N to 17N, between 44W and 47W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 8-10 ft seas are observed along the northern half of this wave. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conductive, some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days. A tropical depression could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic and approaches the Leeward Islands on Friday. The current outlook assigns a low chance of development through 48 hours and a medium chance through 5 days. Refer to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NHC at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W, from 05N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed around Hispaniola, from 18N to 22N, between 69W and 75W. Scattered moderate convection is also observed over NE Colombia and NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 09N34W. In addition to convection associated with tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N, between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary boundary extends across the northern Gulf from the Florida Big Bend area to the central Texas Gulf coast. Upper- level divergent flow south of the boundary is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf, S of 28N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, a weak stationary front extends from near Crystal River, Florida to Matagorda Bay, Texas. The front may shift slowly southeast and south to near Tampa, Florida to Brownsville, Texas through late Wed before dissipating. Looking ahead to later in the week, high pressure will build over the southeast U.S. following the front, maintaining gentle to moderate easterly breezes and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low near Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean from 16N to 22N, between 77W and 85W. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trades across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist over the Caribbean as a tropical wave moves across the central portions of the basin. Winds and seas will start to increase from east to west starting late Wed over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the tropical wave. Northerly swell moving through the Atlantic passages will gradually subside late Wed. Looking ahead, another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean Fri, and reach the central Caribbean by Sat, and then the western Caribbean late Sun into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level low over the Turks and Caicos is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and surrounding waters in the western Atlantic. A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 31N61W is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with 5-7 ft seas, comprised primarily of northerly swell. A weak cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 27N50W. Gentle westerlies are observed behind this feature, with moderate SE winds ahead. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in the region, with stronger winds and higher seas near the tropical wave described above. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, the northerly swell is expected to subside through Wed, mainly west of 65W. The northern end of a tropical wave will pass 55W south of 22N by early Fri, bringing fresh E winds and locally rough seas to the area northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The wave may weaken as it continues westward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas through Sat. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida and stall by the end of the week into the weekend. $$ Flynn