000 AXNT20 KNHC 091723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered north of the area near 34.2N 61.0W at 09/1500 UTC or 220 NM ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 180 NM of the center. Earl is forecast to accelerate further toward the northeast today. Earl is then forecast to slow down considerably Saturday night through Monday. Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then steadily weaken through early Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic: A gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located about 950 NM east of the Leeward Islands near 20N45W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center due to strong upper-level winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 21N-25N between 40W-45W. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft. A recent scatterometer overpass showed peak winds of 30-35 kt. The strong upper-level winds are forecast to persist for the next several days and it is becoming less likely that a short-lived tropical storm will form. Regardless of development, the disturbance is forecast to move generally west-northwestward near 15 kt across the central subtropical Atlantic. For more information on this system, including gale warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical weather outlook at https://www.hurricanes.gov. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 26W, from 17N southward, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 26W-302W. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it moves westward or west-northwestward around 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle of next week. A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 45W from 10N-25N moving west at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described above as part of the gale-force 1008 mb low at 20N45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 11N36W. The ITCZ begins at 10N45W to 10N58W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical wave above, scattered moderate is noted from 07N-10N east of 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a weak 1007 mb low was present near 27N90W with a surface trough extending south-southwestward to 20N94W. Another trough extends from the Big Bend area of Florida southwestward to 28N84W. Both of these features are supported by a vigorous upper-level trough over the N central Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the Gulf of Mexico east of 87W. Winds over the SE Gulf are moderate to fresh with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere winds and seas are quiet outside of localized thunderstorms. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf will migrate NW toward the north-central Gulf today. A deep layered upper trough across the western Gulf will support very active weather along and east of the surface trough through Sat night. Fresh southerly return flow will develop across the eastern half of the basin tonight into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through early next week as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing only moderate or lighter trades today. Seas are 2-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean west of 84W, being forced by the upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas will prevail across most of the Caribbean through today, and locally fresh in the NW Caribbean. Very active weather will continue across the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras tonight through Tue, locally strong in the south-central Caribbean Sat night and again Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Earl and on a gale-force 1008 mb low pressure system located about 950 NM east of the Leeward Islands. A weak 1025 mb Azores High is located at 30N30W with surface ridging extending west-southwestward to 21N75W and east- northeastward north of the area. South of the ridge and north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 8-10 ft. South of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, winds are light with seas 4-7 ft. Aside from the convection associated with the gale-force low, scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N west of 75W being forced by a stationary front draped along 31N. For the forecast west of 55W, other than the effects of departing Earl, weak high pressure will prevail to the southwest of Earl today. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northeasterly swell will follow the front, and spread across the area waters Sun through Tue. $$ Landsea