000 AXNT20 KNHC 090559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Earl, at 09/0300 UTC, is near 31.3N 63.7W. This position also is about 150 km/81 nm to the southeast of Bermuda. Earl is north-northeast, 030 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 80 knots with gusts to 100 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 225 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, and within 540 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Tropical storm force winds are within: 140 nm of the center in the NE QUADRANT...160 nm of the center in the SE quadrant...120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant...and 100 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are within: 240 nm NE and SW quadrants...210 nm NW quadrant, and 270 nm SE quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 42 feet. The hazards that are or will be affecting land are: tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda overnight; Earl is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) in Bermuda through Friday; Swells generated by Earl are affecting Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast tonight. It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult bulletins and charts that are from your local weather office. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. A tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. A 1008 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 19.5N. Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet in E to SE swell, are from 21N to 23N between 41W and 43W. Expect the wind speeds to range from 20 knots to 30 knots, and the sea heights to range from 8 feet to 14 feet in E swell, from 19N to 24N between 38W and 46W. Expect for the rest of the area that is from 18N to 24N between 37W and 45W, the wind speeds will be less than 20 knots, and the sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet in E swell. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The precipitation is being displaced well to the northeast of the circulation center by strong upper level winds. A middle level to upper level trough is to the northwest of the 1008 mb low pressure center, from 360 nm away to 520 nm away. No significant deep convective precipitation is associated with the middle level to upper level trough. The environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for additional development. An increase in organization of the system still may result in the formation of a short-lived tropical cyclone in the next day or so, as it moves westward to west- northwestward 15 to 20 mph, in the central sections of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development, by the weekend. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecasts, that is issued by the National Weather Service, for more information, including for gale-force wind warnings. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 04N to 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 16N17W, to 12N26W, through the 1008 mb low pressure center that is along the 43W/44W tropical wave and one of the subjects that is for the Special Features section, to 17N54W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 14N to 16N between Senegal and 18W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle level to upper level trough is in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the Florida Big Bend, to the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery in the western Gulf of Mexico with the trough. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong in clusters covers the areas that are from South Florida and the Florida Keys, to the Yucatan Peninsula, to parts of eastern Guatemala and the western half of Honduras, and westward through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to inland Mexico that is from 20N southward between 100W and 105W. A rather weak surface pressure gradient supports light to gentle northerly winds to the north and west of the trough, and moderate southwest winds to the east of the trough in the southeastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet everywhere. A weak pressure pattern will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight, producing gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. A surface trough extends from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf. This trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The trough will migrate NW toward the north- central Gulf early Fri and induce a fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A weak Atlantic Ocean surface ridge that is to the north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl. Earl is currently well to the north of the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, through southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N southward from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is elsewhere in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The precipitation that is in the northwestern corner of the area is related to the Gulf of Mexico middle level to upper level trough, and the surface trough. A weak Atlantic Ocean ridge north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean Sea and off Honduras Fri night through Tue, locally strong in the south central Caribbean Sea Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Hurricane Earl, and about the 43W/44W tropical wave and the 1008 mb low pressure center that is accompanying it. The sea heights will range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in general, away from Hurricane Earl, and away from the combination of the 1008 mb low pressure center and the 43W/44W tropical wave. Light to gentle winds are from 10N northward from 45W westward. Near the Canary Islands: gentle to moderate winds, with locally fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 45W. A frontal boundary is along 30N/31N, from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong is from 23N northward from 76W westward. This precipitation covers parts of the NW Bahamas, and the Atlantic Ocean that is to the east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Earl centered now just north of the area near 31.3N 63.7W 964 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NNE at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Earl will slightly strengthen as it moves to 33.3N 61.8W Fri morning, eventually becoming extratropical and move to 43.3N 51.3W Sat evening. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl through Fri. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northerly swell will follow the front, affecting the northeastern and north central forecast zones Sun and Mon before diminishing Tue. $$ mt/jl