000 AXNT20 KNHC 090005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 09 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Earl is centered near near 30.6N 64.3W, or about 100 nm south-southeast of Bermuda at 09/0000 UTC moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in banding formation within 150 nm of the center in the NE and within 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is south of Earl within 60 nm of 29N65W. Peak seas are currently at 25 ft as far as 420 nm in the SE quadrant. Earl is expected to continue in its current motion tonight and an increase in forward speed is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northeast tomorrow. Strengthening is still anticipated and Earl could become a major hurricane by tomorrow. Thereafter, some weakening and transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone is forecast on Sat. Swells generated by Earl are building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Also, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Low pressure of 1004 mb is located near 19N42W. The low is along a tropical wave axis that extends from 22N42W to 16N42W and to 10N42W. Satellite imagery shows a large cluster of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection to the NE of the low from 20N to 25N between 37W-41W. ASCAT data from earlier today suggested gale-force winds in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas with these winds are in the 12-15 ft range. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for additional development. However, an increase in organization of the system could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical cyclone in the next day or so as it moves westward to west- northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Also, please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is to its west from 08N to 11N between 23W-25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 22N42W to 16N42W and to 10N42W. No convection is noted along and near the immediate wave axis, however, please see the Special Features section above for details regarding low pressure of 1004 mb this is along the wave axis near 19N42W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 15N30W to the 1009 mb low in the Special Features section to 18N53W. For information about convection see the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A mid to upper-level trough supports a stationary frontal boundary that is just inland the northern Gulf coast. To its southeast and south, a trough Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from just inland Apalachicola southwest to broad low pressure near 28N86W 1007 mb and continues southwestward to 24N89W and to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and east of the trough north of 25N, and also south of 23N between 89W-94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 24N and west of the trough to 96W, and also from 25N to 28N west of the trough to near 90W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the Gulf. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle northerly winds north and west of the trough and moderate southwest winds ahead of the trough in the southeastern part of the gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through tonight, producing gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. The aforementioned surface trough and broad 1007 mb low pressure will migrate northwestward toward the north-central Gulf early Fri and induce a fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, currently located well north of the area. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean. Otherwise, the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is helping to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean south of about 13N between northwest Colombia and 79W. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms moving westward are over the eastern Caribbean. Otherwise, pretty stable conditions are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the weak Atlantic ridge north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to fresh trade winds will return to the southeastern Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Earl and low pressure near 19N42W that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Outside the influence of Hurricane Earl and the low pressure near 19N42W, Atlantic high pressure is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas at 3-5 ft north of 10N west 45W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh northeast to east trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft are north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 45W. To the south, gentle to moderate monsoonal winds with 6-9 ft seas are south of 20N between the central African coast and 45W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 5-8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving offshore the Florida peninsula from 25N to 30N. Scattered moderate convection also moving eastward is northeast of northern Florida and offshore southeastern Georgia to near 77W. An upper-level trough axis that extends from near 31N33W southwestward to 26N46W, to an elongated low near 23N48W and to near 16N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 14N to 20N between 54W and the Leeward Islands. Small isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the central Atlantic waters from 20N to 27N between 55W-68W and elsewhere east of Earl to near 56W. For the forecast, Earl will strengthen to a major hurricane north of the area near 35N60W Fri afternoon, then become extratropical near 43N52W Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the northwest and west of Earl through Fri. A cold front will move south of 31N late Sat and extend from 31N55W to 28N65W to 30N73W early Sun before weakening. Northerly swell will follow the front, affecting the northeastern and north-central forecast zones Sun and Mon before diminishing Tue. $$ Aguirre