000 AXNT20 KNHC 071759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Danielle remains a large hurricane over the far north Atlantic. At 07/1500 UTC, Danielle is centered near 43.7N 36.3W or 540 nm NW of the Azores moving NE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Seas are peaking near 32 ft. Numerous moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Danielle should begin to weaken later today and transition to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday, with further weakening anticipated through Saturday. On the forecast track, Danielle is moving toward the northeast, and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slow counterclockwise turn is forecast Friday and early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the south-southeast to southeast over the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. Hurricane Earl is forecast to be a major hurricane later this week. At 07/1800 UTC, Hurricane Earl is centered near 26.0N 65.7W or 380 nm S of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles. Seas are peaking near 30 ft. Earl is moving toward the north, and a continued northward motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north- northeast and then northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Thursday and continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Earl is expected to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Swells generated by Earl are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight and the U.S. east coast shortly thereafter. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located near 16N34.5W or several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity still remains disorganized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely form by Friday while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave currently located near the west African coast is forecast to emerge offshore into the eastern Atlantic over the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter as the system moves west- northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The axis of the tropical wave is analyzed along 15W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 11.5N between 15W and 19W. A weak tropical wave is near 51W from 10N to 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then continues through the Cabo Verde Islands to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 16N34.5W, previously mentioned in the Special Features section, to 14N45W. No significant convection is noted other than what has already been described above. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean, particularly S of 11N between 76W and 81W. At this time, this convective activity is affecting parts of the coast of Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed across the Gulf waters, and extends from near Tampa Bay, FL to 26N90W to 24N96W. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are near and to the N of the trough axis, with a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection near the western end of the trough. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh northerly winds in the wake of the trough, with some wind barbs of 30 kt likely associated with the thunderstorms activity. Elsewhere, weak high pressure across the northern Gulf is supporting generally light to gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through Thu night to produce gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across the basin. Broad low pressure will move into the northwest Gulf Fri and induce a moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow across the eastern half of the basin Fri night into Sat night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the trough weakens and shifts west ahead of high pressure building over the northeast Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Lines of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with the circulation of Earl are still noted over the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico as well as over the NE Caribbean. Locally heavy rain could result in urban and small stream flooding, mudslides along steep terrains, and even flash floods across these islands. Elsewhere, mainly trade wind showers are noted. Scatterometer data show mainly light to gentle winds across the basin, with the exception of gentle to moderate trades just N of the ABC Islands to about 15N. Seas are 3-4 ft within this area of winds, and 1-3 ft elsewhere based on recent altimeter data. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area is being disrupted by Hurricane Earl, that will continue to move away from the NE Caribbean today while gradually strengthening. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas across most of the Caribbean through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will return to the southeast Caribbean and off Honduras Fri night through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Earl. A surface trough extends from 31N79W across northern Florida to near the Tampa Bay area, then continues across the Gulf of Mexico region. Scatterometer data reveal some wind shift related to the trough axis just off NE Florida. Mainly light to gentle winds are noted W of 75W, including the NW Bahamas. E of Earl, a ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a high pressure center of 1024 mb located SSE of the Azores near 32N24W. The pressure gradient between this system and the low pressure situated near 16N34.5W supports an area of fresh to strong winds within about 300 nm N of the low center where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. A band of fresh to strong southwesterly flow is also noted within 280 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Similar wind speeds are also seen per satellite derived wind data near the coast of southern Western Sahara. Seas are generally 6-8 ft N of 20N E of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, Hurricane Earl will move to near 28.5N65W Thu morning, strengthen to a major hurricane Thu evening near 30.5N64W, move to near 36.5N57W Fri evening, and become extratropical while weakening by Sun morning near 45N49W. Winds will diminish across the NE forecast waters by Fri night as Earl moves N of the forecast area. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. Northerly swell associated with Earl may impact the waters north of 29N Fri into Sun. $$ GR